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The NFL and the NFL Players Association came to a new collective bargaining agreement that would potentially shrink the salary cap in 2021 for the first time since 2011. The two parties agreed to the deal as a response to the coronavirus pandemic.
And though the NFL decided to have a salary cap of $198.2 million for 2020 (as a part of a previously CBA), the league has a salary cap floor of $175 million for 2021, a number which would put 15 teams over the cap at this point. It would be a staggering drop from what was previously projected to be $215 million.
The NFL has a strong history of raising the salary cap, which is why teams build their rosters with the assumption that business will only continue to get better. That assumption is, of course, fraught amid the pandemic.
Let’s dive into what this might mean for the NFL.
What is a salary cap floor?
It’s the lowest possible salary cap for 2021. That’s why these teams only have the potential to be under the cap. The NFL and the NFLPA could agree to raise that salary cap, if business goes well in 2020.
Will business go well in 2020?
Probably not.
The NFL season, as a whole, is in question — especially considering MLB is struggling to manage the pandemic. The Miami Marlins are dealing with an outbreak in their locker room. It’s easy to imagine the NFL, which is taking an approach not unlike MLB, dealing with a similar outbreak in a team’s locker room. If multiple locker rooms suffered from outbreaks, the league may have to cancel games or the whole season. That would impact revenue enormously, and owners would look to 2020 to offset some of their losses.
Even if the NFL doesn’t cancel games (past the preseason, which the league already cancelled), it will be selling — for some teams — game day tickets, concessions and parking for the games at a limited capacity. The New England Patriots, for example, intend to start their capacity at 20%, though that may change as the COVID-19 case numbers continue to spike in hotspots around the country.
If the stadiums are completely empty (like they’ve been in MLB and European soccer), then Forbes projects teams to lose between $77 million (the Oakland Raiders) and $621 million (the Dallas Cowboys).
Which teams won’t make it under the 2021 salary cap floor?
Per Over The Cap, the following 14 teams have an active-spending sum that exceeds $175 million. And we haven’t even seen a free agency.
Detroit Lions ($175,215,992)
Dallas Cowboys ($175,582,661)
Buffalo Bills ($179,764,313)
Green Bay Packers ($182,059,354)
Tennessee Titans ($182,561,409)
Cleveland Browns ($183,931,346)
Oakland Raiders ($186,095,917)
Chicago Bears ($188,882,591)
Minnesota Vikings ($189,438,952)
Pittsburgh Steelers ($191,441,352)
Houston Texans ($194,441,352)
Kansas City Chiefs ($203,194,649)
Atlanta Falcons ($216,808,741)
New Orleans Saints ($249,835,778)
Philadelphia Eagles ($269,151,037)
For context, only one team — the Seattle Seahawks ($169,050,743) — spent less than $175 million in 2020. That spells trouble for next year.
What will those teams do, if the cap ends up at $175 million?
They can ask players to take pay cuts while renegotiating contracts to free up space in 2021, though that often means creating bigger cap burdens in future years. If that fails, they will be forced to cut and trade players.
Which teams will be fine?
Here’s a look at the teams that will still have cap space, even if the NFL elects to use the salary cap floor.
New York Giants ($170,145,019)
San Francisco 49ers ($170,137,234)
Carolina Panthers ($168,571,142)
Miami Dolphins ($164,811,518)
Los Angeles Rams ($163,600,495)
Denver Broncos ($160,641,515)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($156,244,511)
Seattle Seahawks ($153,848,656)
Arizona Cardinals ($153,053,581)
Baltimore Ravens ($151,523,805)
New York Jets ($148,654,902)
Washington ($144,871,269)
Cincinnati Bengals ($138,235,534)
Jacksonville Jaguars ($126,098,875)
Los Angeles Chargers ($121,648,394)
New England Patriots ($121,244,230)
Indianapolis Colts ($101,858,086)
It’s worth noting that, though teams like the Giants, 49ers, Panthers and Dolphins are technically under the cap floor, they are dangerously close to the $175 million mark. If that’s the number the NFL chose, they would have a hard time adding or retaining talent.
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