Four and five-star grades matter in football recruiting, but Wisconsin is statistically one of the best places for a three-star recruit to be

The Badgers have developed three-star talent into NFL draft picks at a higher rate than nearly any other program over the past five years

[lawrence-newsletter]Following the 2020 NFL draft, a draft that continued to prove just how successful modern-day recruiting sites are at evaluating talent, there was a lot of talk about how much stars matter. How much more likely is it that a five-star player makes it to the NFL over a four-star player? What are the chances that a three-star recruit makes it? Did the 2020 NFL draft show how much or how little recruiting stars matter? These are all questions that can be easily answered with a few data points.

The general answer to the big question of how much does being a four or five-star recruit impact your chances of being drafted early is a ton. In fact, the recruiting era had arguably their best draft ever in 2020. According to 247sports rankings, four and five-star recruits make up just six percent of all recruits who were draft eligible in 2020. Despite that, 66% of first round picks were four and five-star guys in 2020. According to Bud Elliot of 247sports, based on 247sports rankings and how the first round of the 2020 NFL draft went, you would have a one in five chance (20%) of being drafted in the first round as a five-star recruit. As a four-star, that number dips to one in 21 (4.7%), and as a three-star it plummets to one in 184 (.05%).

At Wisconsin, however, you would have one of the best chances in the nation of being drafted as a three-star over the past five years. According to SportSource Analytics, Wisconsin ranks second in the nation in terms of three-star recruits drafted over the past five drafts.

The 16 three-star Badger recruits drafted over the past five years include a pair of first and second round picks. Current Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt and new Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor were both consensus three-star recruits. Watt defied the .05% chances and was taken in the first round of the 2017 draft, while Taylor was selected just last week in the second round.

The numbers make a strong argument for the validity of recruiting sites and stars, as well as showing how well Wisconsin has developed talent over the past five years.