Former agent believes Jessie Bates unlikely to hold out into season

An outsider’s view on the standoff between the Bengals and Jessie Bates.

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As we draw closer to training camp, one of the big questions surrounding the Cincinnati Bengals is the future of their star safety Jessie Bates.

The Bengals placed the franchise tag on Bates earlier this year, which would earn $12.911 million. While that ranks him second among safeties in terms of 2022 base salary, that also ranks him 9th in terms of average annual contract value.

Bates wants to have an average contract value near the likes of Seahawks safety Jamal Adams ($17,645,000 per year) and Broncos safety Justin Simmons ($15.25 million per year), while the Bengals, as believed by CBS Sports salary cap expert and former NFL agent Joel Corry, want to keep Bates around the $14 million per year value the Ravens gave Marcus Williams this offseason.

With all that said, Corry also believes it is unlikely Bates will hold out into the season:

Bates reportedly has no intention of playing under his $12.911 million franchise tag. Sitting out the season if a long-term deal isn’t reached by July 15 would be surprising. The franchise tag is more than twice as much what Bates made from his four-year rookie contract that expired after the 2021 season. Bates’ career earnings to date from his NFL player contract are just over $6.225 million.

Spotrac’s calculated market value for Bates is almost $14.9 million per year. That would put him between Simmons and Cardinals safety Budda Baker.

July 15 is the deadline for the two sides to come to an agreement on a long-term contract. Otherwise, Bates either plays on the franchise tag or doesn’t play at all. Yes, there is also the option of the Bengals rescinding the tag, but you have a better chance of hitting the lottery twice than the Bengals pulling the tag.

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