Why Florida Will Win
– The offense is going to have to get creative without the top three receivers, but this is hardly a depleted attack with several excellent young weapons getting ready to break out. No, there isn’t a Kadarius Toney or Trevon Grimes quite yet, and there’s no replacing Kyle Pitts at tight end, but Jacob Copeland came through with a big game against LSU and there’s enough speed to keep stretching the field for …
– Kyle Trask. He’s just that good. The Florida offensive front is good at holding up in pass protection, and while he has a few blemishes on the resumé – the pick-sixes against LSU and Texas A&M hurt – he has only five picks on the season and 43 touchdown passes. He’s going to keep bombing away and keep the O moving against a Sooner secondary that just got hit for 322 yards by Iowa State’s Brock Purdy.
– The Florida defense is much-maligned for having problems against the better passing teams, and there just aren’t enough big stops on key downs, but this group can get to the quarterback. The Oklahoma offensive line allows a few too many tackles for loss, and QB Spencer Rattler can get pressured if the O isn’t in rhythm. The Gators came up with 33 sacks on the year and are 6-0 when generating three or more and unbeaten when coming up with six or more tackles for loss.
Why Oklahoma Will Win
– A bowl game with a relatively short time to prepare is no time to lose your three star receivers. Yeah, Florida has talent who’ll catch the ball, and yeah, the offense will keep moving, and yeah, it’s tough to lose 31 touchdown catches of production. And there’s one other key part to this.
The Oklahoma secondary hasn’t been bad. It’ll give up yards, but it only allowed multiple touchdown passes twice – giving up two to both Texas and Texas Tech – and picked off 13 passes on the year, partly because …
– The pass rush has been fantastic. The defense as a whole has been terrific – the Sooners are second in the nation against the run – thanks to an active front line that comes up with a ton of sacks and eight tackles for loss per game. It’s not that Florida can’t run – it just doesn’t. However, it’s not going to move too much against this active front.
– The Oklahoma receivers are going to rip though the Florida secondary. The Gators have only picked off nine passes on the year, and six of them came in two games. Granted, teams kept throwing to try keeping up the pace, but it worked. Florida allowed two or more touchdown passes nine times, and the run defense occasionally struggled when teams committed to the ground attack. Oklahoma can move the offense however it wants to.