Florida notched a pair of Quadrant 1 wins since the last time Gators Wire checked in on the ESPN Basketball Power Index. As a result, the Gators are ranked a season-high No. 14 on the BPI, a one-spot increase in 10 days.
Note: The BPI is updated daily; however Gators Wire provides weekly updates so as not to overwhelm fans with constant changes.
Florida’s BPI is 16.3, further broken down as 9.5 (10th) on offense and 6.9 (33rd) on defense. Compared to last week’s BPI numbers — 15.7, 9.6 and 6.1 — the offense is slightly down and the defense improved a significant amount. The Gators are trending up in both categories, though, moving up one spot and into the top 10 of the offensive rankings and up 11 spots on defense.
“The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team’s W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day’s rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections.”
ESPN BPI Projections
ESPN now projects Florida to finish the season with a 23.2-7.8 overall record (1.1 more wins than last week) and a 10.2-7.8 record in conference play (0.3 more wins) based on results to date and BPI-based projections for remaining scheduled games. Beating strong programs such as Arizona State and North Carolina have greatly improved Florida’s non-conference résumé.
The Gators have 2.9% odds to win the conference, up from 2.2% a week ago. Florida faces the 41st-toughest schedule moving forward. As expected, the conference schedule will be a gauntlet.
NCAA Tournament Resume
The 11-0 start has the Gators ranked third overall in strength of record — up from 10th a week ago — which translates to a No. 1 seed if the season were to end today.
Florida’s overall strength of schedule is up to No. 53 and its non-conference strength of schedule is ranked No. 47. The Gators finally notched a “quality win” (against top 50 in BPI) by beating North Carolina, which ranks No. 19 in the latest BPI.
ESPN gives Florida 1.1% odds of winning the NCAA Tournament and 2.8% odds of making it to the championship game. A Final Four appearance (7.5%) or Elite Eight appearance (17.3%) continue to see increased odds, as do the chances of a Sweet 16 (38.5%) and Round of 32 appearance (73.4%).
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