The Florida State Seminoles (2-3 overall, 1-3 ACC) travel to the Ohio River Valley to take on the Louisville Cardinals (1-4, 0-4) at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. The ‘Noles and Cards will tee it up Saturday at noon ET. Below, we analyze the Florida State-Louisville college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Florida State at Louisville: Betting odds and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 6:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Florida State +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Louisville -189 (bet $189 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Florida State +5 (-115) | Louisville -5 (-106)
- Over/Under: 60.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Florida State at Louisville: Three things to know
- Louisville returns home after three straight road games. All three – and the home game vs. Miami preceding them – were losses. Turnovers have been a big problem for the Cardinals. UL has logged just three takeaways against 11 giveaways. So, the Cards head into this contest with a minus-8 in turnover margin. Only four FBS teams have a worse per game mark.
- A once-proud Seminole defense has been picked apart in 2020. Florida State enters ranked 66th of 77 teams in allowing 474.8 yards per game. FSU has played Miami, Notre Dame and North Carolina, three tough opponents that account for some of the defensive woes. But Miami’s offense is about average, so far. There’s a game against another Florida team that was perhaps more concerning. After falling behind FCS Jacksonville State 7-0 on a pick-six, the ‘Noles defense allowed two intermediate-length touchdown drives in falling behind 21-7 – FSU recovered and won 41-24.
- The Cardinals show balance on offense, and junior QB Malik Cunningham has a hand in both the passing and running games. Cunningham is a 62.2% passer (89-of-143), who has a pair of 300-yard games this season. He’s thrown 10 TD passes (against five picks) and he’s rushed for three more as part of a 133-yard total on the season.
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Florida State at Louisville: Odds, prediction, betting lines and picks
Prediction
Louisville 35, Florida State 28
Money line (ML)
AVOID. The Cardinals (-189) are the lean, and better value can be found in spotting the ‘Noles a handful of points.
Against the spread (ATS)
Florida State (+5, -115) hasn’t looked particularly sharp on the road this fall and in the bigger picture is 2-4 ATS over its last half-dozen games away from Tallahassee. LOUISVILLE (-5, -106) is a solid 5-3 ATS over its last eight at home, and one of those losses was to juggernaut Clemson a year ago.
From an analytics standpoint, both of these teams can struggle in keeping foes off schedule on downs. The Cardinals have an above-average offense, and a late-stages lead of 7-14 points – in what figures as a testy battle between two teams with a combined 1-7 ACC mark – is a reasonable expectation. Lay the points. Back the CARDINALS (-5, -106).
Over/Under (O/U)
There is nothing in the surface numbers or the support metrics underpinning them to suggest either side can consistently keep an opponent out of the red zone. Take the OVER 60.5.
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