Florida’s 3-0 start to the 2024-25 college basketball season is on the line Friday when the Gators travel to Tallahassee to face the Florida State Seminoles.
Using the Basketball Power Index, ESPN predicts a Gators victory over the ‘Noles, giving Florida 61.4% odds to win with a 2.9 predicted point differential. ESPN also gives the matchup a quality rating of 72.7, making it the eighth-most exciting matchup of the evening.
“BPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward,” the site reads. “BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is… Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day’s rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections.”
ESPN BPI Season Projections
The Gators are currently ranked 34th on the Basketball Power Index with a 12.6 index, while the Seminoles are 91st with a 6.7 BPI. FSU boasts a strong defense (6.7, 34th), while Florida features a top-20 offense (7.8, 20th).
ESPN projects Florida to finish the season with an 18.8-11.2 overall record and an 8.8-9.2 record in conference play based on results to date and BPI-based projections for remaining scheduled games. The Gators only have 0.8% odds to win the conference. Florida faces the 38th-toughest schedule moving forward.
Where to Watch Florida-Florida State
The rivalry matchup between Florida and Florida State will air on the ACC Network, which is not accessible on ESPN+ without a separate subscription or linked cable provider. Tip-off is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET on Friday, Nov. 15.
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