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The Florida Panthers (40-22-3) visit the Toronto Maple Leafs (39-22-3) Thursday in a key Atlantic Division showdown at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Panthers vs. Maple Leafs odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
Season series: Panthers lead 1-0
Florida won the first meeting on Nov. 27 at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, burying Toronto 5-1 as a moderate favorite (-155) as the Over (5.5) just came through. The Panthers had 5 different scores, including a power-play goal from D Aleksander Barkov, and a shorthanded goal by F Sam Reinhart, while F Mitch Marner had the lone marker for the visitors.
This is the first of 3 meetings between now and April 8, and the results will likely go a long way in determining the champ of the Atlantic Division, although the Tampa Bay Lightning might have something to say about that, too.
The Panthers lost 3-2 at the Boston Bruins on Tuesday in LW Brad Marchand‘s first game back in Beantown since being traded at the deadline, snapping a 6-game win streak. The Under is on a 5-0 run, while cashing at an 8-2 clip in the past 10 outings.
The Maple Leafs gritted out a 4-3 shootout win at the Utah Hockey Club Monday, salvaging the final game of a 3-game road trip which saw high-scoring losses at the Vegas Golden Knights (5-2) and at the Colorado Avalanche (7-4). The Over hit in each game on the trip, and the total has gone high in 7 of the past 9 contests.
The home team has won 5 straight in this series, with the Over cashing in the past 3 meetings.
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Panthers at Maple Leafs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:59 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Panthers -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Maple Leafs -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Panthers -1.5 (+200) | Maple Leafs +1.5 (-275)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Panthers at Maple Leafs projected goalies
Sergei Bobrovsky (27-14-2, 2.51 GAA, .907 SV%, 4 SO) vs. Anthony Stolarz (13-6-3, 2.33 GAA, .921 SV%, 1 SO)
Bobrovsky is all but likely to get the starting nod. He allowed 3 goals on 24 shots in the loss in Boston, but he has given up 3 or fewer goals in 7 straight starts. He is 3-1-0 with a 1.01 GAA and .957 SV% with 2 SO in 4 March starts.
Bob allowed just a single goal to Marner on 24 shots by the Leafs in that 5-1 victory Nov. 27 in Sunrise.
Stolarz, a Stanley Cup champ as a backup to Bobrovsky last season, is confirmed to start for the Leafs. He was stomped for 5 goals on 32 shots in Colorado last time out, and he is just 0-1-1 with a 3.20 GAA and .875 SV% in 2 starts and 1 relief appearance in March.
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Panthers at Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Prediction
Panthers 5, Maple Leafs 2
Moneyline
The PANTHERS (-115) were tripped up in Boston last time out, as the offense failed to get going, but that shouldn’t be a problem against Stolarz and the Maple Leafs (-105).
Florida loaded up before and at the NHL trade deadline, as it looks to successfully defend its Stanley Cup championship.
The Leafs made some nice depth moves, but nowhere near the splash Florida made. Toronto has had trouble with the teams from the Sunshine State lately, and it is about to get worse Thursday.
Puck line/Against the spread
If you’re a little more on the adventurous side, forget the moneyline and back the PANTHERS -1.5 (+200) for the chance to double up.
Bobrovsky is white-hot in goal for the Panthers, posting 2 shutouts in 4 starts, while Stolarz is struggling with his tracking, and the Leafs need to get into shootouts to post victories. That isn’t happening against a goaltender the caliber of Bobrovsky, even if the game is on home ice.
Over/Under
OVER 6 (+100) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at best. It’s especially attractive at even-money.
The Over has cashed in 3 in a row in the series, with the winning team getting to 5 goals in each of those games.
The Under is on a 5-0 run for the Panthers, so be careful. However, the Over is 7-2 in the past 9 for the Leafs, and Toronto has allowed 3 or more goals in 5 straight, with 23 goals in the span (4.6 GPG).
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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