After taking as small dip in the KenPom ratings last week, the Florida Gators are up to a season-high No. 18 after a 6-0 start to the college basketball season.
A net rating of plus-21.86 is more than a full point higher than a week ago, and the Gators have passed by several teams, including Texas A&M by fewer than three-tenths of a point.
Auburn (plus-30.35, 3rd) leads all SEC programs followed by Tennessee (plus-29.71, 5th), Alabama (plus-24.36, 10th), Kentucky (plus-22.78, 13th), Florida, Texas A&M (plus-21.57, 19th) and Mississippi State (plus 19.79, 25th).
Texas (plus-19.87, 28th) is just outside the top 25, and Arkansas (plus-17.42, 37th), Oklahoma (plus-15.27, 47th), Ole Miss (plus 15.03, 48th) and Missouri (plus-14.79, 50th) are all inside the top 50.
Many college hoops experts and oddsmakers consider Pomeroy’s ratings the gold standard in the sport, and the reputation has held for more than 20 years.
“His ratings are derived from a proprietary algorithm, with the core centered on the Pythagorean calculation for expected winning percentage, made famous by baseball statistician Bill James,” ESPN explains.
“Pomeroy’s formula is designed to be purely predictive, with an emphasis on margin of victory. He factors in offensive and defensive efficiency, tempo and even luck, but does not, however, take into consideration injuries or emotional factors.”
Breaking down the KenPom ratings
Date | Nov. 12 (Week 1) | Nov. 20 (Week 2) | Nov. 26 (Week 3) |
W-L | 3-0 | 5-0 | 6-0 |
NetRtg | +19.83 (20) | +20.74 (22) | +21.86 (18) |
ORtg | 117.2 (13) | 118.1 (11) | 119.5 (8) |
DRtg | 97.4 (49) | 97.4 (51) | 97.6 (49) |
AdjT | 73.2 (47) | 71.7 (72) | 70.4 (93) |
Luck | +.000 (117) | +.000 (182) | +.000 (188) |
SOS Net | -4.16 (237) | -4.27 (239) | -3.79 (252) |
SOS ORtg | 100.8 (265) | 100.0 (293) | 101.4 (303) |
SOS DRtg | 105.0 (198) | 104.3 (167) | 105.2 (164) |
NCSOS Net | -4.16 (237) | -4.27 (239) | -3.79 (252) |
Since we last checked in with KenPom, Florida’s offensive rating has improved by 1.3 points (per 100 possessions) and the defense has gained 0.2 points. A three-spot jump in the offensive ratings moves the Gators inside the top 10, and a two-spot increase on defense brings Florida inside the top 50.
Florida defeated Southern Illinois behind a dominant performance from Alijah Martin (32 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists) and a career-high scoring night from Thomas Haugh (19 points). The Gators play two games this week on Thursday and Friday as part of the ESPN Events Invitational Thanksgiving week tournament.
Florida’s adjusted tempo continues to drop, now at 70.4 after a preseason projection of 73.6. The Gators were one of the fastest-paced programs in the country a year ago but are now trending toward a dip outside of the top 100. With SEC play still ahead, the number figures to drop more.
Because Florida was expected to win all six games it’s played this year, the luck rating remains at triple zeroes. No movement is a good thing in this statistical category, given the circumstances.
Strength of Schedule according to KenPom
KenPom’s strength of schedule ratings only considers the games played, so Florida’s 252nd ranking isn’t as concerning as it may seem on paper. Golden has the group playing lesser opponents early on, and the rating climbed for the first time this year.
Still, the Gators have only faced one program inside the top 100 so far (Florida State, 60th). South Florida (146th) and Jacksonville (155th) have both climbed since playing Florida, while Grambling State (221nd) and Florida A&M (353rd) have both dipped, according to KenPom. Southern Illinois (153rd) is a middle-of-the-pack program right now, but more losses could hurt its rating.
Florida’s upcoming opponents — No. 99 Wake Forest and either No. 88 Minnesota or No. 76 Wichita State — give the Gators a chance to add two more top-100 wins to its tally.
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