Why Florida Atlantic Will Win
– The defense is the real deal. It might have melted down a bit at the end of the regular season, but overall it’s been great against the pass, it allowed just 326 yards per game, and it’s able to keep the team in the game so the offense doesn’t have to press. The pass rush comes from all sides, and …
– The Memphis pass protection is just okay. It’s not bad, but it’s not strong enough to be a rock against the speed the Owls bring. Apply pressure throughout, keep getting into the backfield, and bother a Memphis offense that likes to operate at a decent pace. Just a little bit of disruption matters.
– The Memphis defense isn’t quite as awful as it’s been over the last several years, but it’s not good. it gives up passing yards in chunks, the defensive front gets hammered on way too easily, and the pass rush is just okay. FAU likes to keep the score low and control the tempo, but …
Why Memphis Will Win
– The Owl offense just doesn’t move the ball. It doesn’t win the time of possession battle, it’s not particularly great on third downs, and it struggles way too much on the line. No, Memphis doesn’t have a great pass rush, but it’ll look like the 1985 Chicago Bears against the FAU offensive front.
– Brady White is hardly going to be fazed by anything that happens in this. The three-year starter threw for 454 yards against Penn State in last year’s Cotton Bowl, and he’s been just fine this year with close to 3,100 yards and 28 touchdowns. He’s a big play quarterback who shouldn’t have too much of an issue with the FAU pass rush. If he’s able to get a little time, the downfield passing game will be there.
– Florida Atlantic doesn’t control the clock. Considering its strong defense and mediocre O, controlling the tempo is a big deal – it can’t do that. The lack of a consistent or accurate passing game is a killer on third downs, and there isn’t enough of a ground game to go on any long marches. Basically, if Memphis gets up fast, forget it.
And …