The Florida Gators were one of 13 Division I college football teams that had their average points per game decrease by more than 10 in 2021, but ESPN thinks UF is primed to bounce back under first-year head coach Billy Napier.
In a breakdown of teams likely to improve in 2022, ESPN’s Bill Connelly has the Gators improving by 2.9 points per game (11.0 to 13.9) and finishing 23rd overall in SP+ with a 7-5 record. That’s a far cry from the Gators’ monstrous average of 23.9 points per game in 2020, when the team ranked sixth in SP+.
But improvement takes time, especially when Dan Mullen left Napier a rather empty talent cupboard. Connelly notes the Gators still have plenty of players brimming with potential that could make things go right.
As is always the case when a coach takes over a job in which their predecessor was fired, there are potential stumbling blocks in Gainesville. The skill corps is very thin outside of receiver Justin Shorter and transfers [autotag]Montrell Johnson[/autotag] (Louisiana) and [autotag]Ricky Pearsall[/autotag] (Arizona State), and the defense wasn’t nearly disruptive enough last fall. But quarterback [autotag]Anthony Richardson[/autotag] has flashed immense potential, key defenders [autotag]Ventrell Miller[/autotag] (linebacker) and [autotag]Jaydon Hill[/autotag] (cornerback) return from injury, and the schedule includes only a couple of truly likely losses (vs. Georgia, at Texas A&M).
As it stands, the Gators have a 69% chance of improving their record, and Richardson reaching his full potential (or maybe even just some of it) would increase that number by a lot.
Florida isn’t expected to bounce back nearly as strongly as some other programs, such as USC, but the Gators should be better than last year.
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