First-Curl Problems: Cowboys have issue converting pressures into sacks

The Cowboys defense has been lights out applying pressure but fallen short in turning those pressures into sacks. | From @ReidDHanson

One of the most polarizing arguments in football is the value of a pressure versus the value of a sack. Sacks are the goal and a pressure without a sack is just a failed attempt at reaching said goal. The other side argues sacks are more a byproduct of quarterback play than a show of defensive execution. And that a pressure has hidden value, not as easily measured as a sack.

According to the second side of the argument, a pressured quarterback may rush a pass for an incompletion, throw it away, or even toss an interception. Pressures often lead to very good things for the defense, even if the quarterback keeps avoiding sacks. It should by no means be seen as a failure for the defense.

A missed opportunity? Sure, but not a failure.

The Cowboys are coming off a season where, per PFF tracking, they had the highest pressure rate in the NFL. Unfortunately, their pressure-to-sack conversion rate fell well below league average, causing them to finish 14th overall in sacks. They appear to be the poster children for missed opportunities.

Sacks have significant value. Based on 12 years of NFL data, Eric Eager concluded the average sack has an EPA/play value of -1.856. That’s considerably more than plays with simple pressures which averaged only -0.074. Keep in mind, that EPA number includes the interceptions and incompletions caused by the pressure. Pressures are great, but they pale in comparison to sacks.

So, it’s understandable many want to blame the Cowboys defense for these missed opportunities. Even though sacks are notoriously unstable year-to-year, the best pressure team in the NFL should surely finish above 14th in overall in sacks (46).

Interior pressure has been a noticeable issue for the Cowboys in recent seasons and unless Mike Zimmer schemes something to correct it, it could be an issue again in 2024. With the exception of Osa Odighizuwa, no one has been able to offer consistent pressure inside. That’s inexcusable on a team that features someone like Micah Parsons, a player who commands double and even triple teams on passing downs.

At 59% as a unit, the Cowboys lead the NFL in Pass-rush-win-rate (PRWR). Each outlet measures pressure their own way. ESPN’s PRWR speaks to the speed in which pressure is applied rather than the quality or the likelihood it can result in a sack. In other words, it has faults. Regardless, speed pressure creates ample opportunity for cleanup sacks, which is an area the Cowboys often fall short of expectations.

Luckily turnovers have been a beneficial byproduct of the pressure the Cowboys have been bringing. Dallas finished with 17 interceptions last season, just squeezing into the top-10. They had 16 the season before and a league-leading 26 the season before that (2021). Pressure certainly had a hand in that.

It’s not out of bounds to say the Cowboys have an issue converting pressures into sacks. There’s no question the Cowboys have left some meat on the bone when hunting for passers. The missed opportunities are undeniable, and EPA data shows it’s to a rather significant degree.

Since sacks are unstable year to year, this could all change in a blink. Yet the Cowboys have consistently ranked near the top of the NFL in pressures over the last three seasons but only ranked above 14th in sacks, once (2022).

It’s an issue worth monitoring and something that should be at the top of Mike Zimmer’s list in training camp this summer.

[affiliatewidget_smgtolocal]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3]