The NASCAR Cup Series moves to the Michigan International Speedway for the FireKeepers Casino 400. The green flag drops Saturday at 4 p.m. ET with the race televised on NBCSN. Below, we analyze the FireKeepers Casino 400 odds and betting lines, with NASCAR picks and tips with odds from BetMGM sportsbook.
FireKeepers Casino 400: What you need to know
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9:15 a.m. ET.
Stewart-Haas Racing driver Kevin Harvick (surprise!) won the last NASCAR Cup Series race at MIS last season, with Penske Racing’s Joey Logano winning the FireKeepers Casino 400 last season in the spring.
- Harvick has won two of the past three Cup races at Michigan, and he is averaging a 2.8 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in his past four starts in the Irish Hills.
- Ford has won four consecutive races at Michigan, a very popular track with two of the sport’s biggest manufacturers right down Interstate 94 in Detroit. Chevrolet won the previous three races before Ford’s current run, with Toyota winning just once in the past 16 Michigan races.
- Six of the previous 13 pole sitters have picked up checkered flags in Michigan, including Logano last spring. In fact, each of Logano’s three wins at MIS have come from the pole.
- Johnny Klausmeier, the crew chief for Clint Bowyer, was suspended for Saturday’s race after the No. 14 Ford was found with two lug nuts not safely secured. As such, Greg Zipadelli will fill in atop Bowyer’s box.
- Brad Keselowski, the only Michigan native on the circuit, signed a contract extension this week to remain with Penske Racing. Will he celebrate in the Great Lakes State with a victory?
Who is going to win the FireKeepers Casino 400?
HARVICK (+400 for Saturday’s race) is once again the chalk, and as mentioned, he has a pair of checkered flags at Michigan in the past three stops. He has been one of the most consistent drivers since the restart.
Harvick enters Saturday’s race with three wins, 13 top-5s and 19 top-10s in his 38 career races in Michigan, posting an 11.66 AFP while leading 517 laps. Happy has finished fifth or better in five of his past nine Michigan starts.
Keselowski might be the lone Michigan native running at his home track, and he has a fat contract in tow, but LOGANO (+800) is the Penske driver to track this week. Ford has dominated at this track in recent seasons, and Logano has three career wins in the Irish Hills, while Keselowski continues to search for that first elusive win at the track. In fact, Logano has been 10th or better in eight of his past 10 starts at MIS.
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KYLE BUSCH (+900) just hasn’t been himself this season, however. Rowdy has 10 top 5 results, but zero victories. Busch is coming off a devastating 38th-place showing in Loudon last week, and he has led 10 or fewer laps in nine of the past 11, and 16 of the previous 20 runs. So why Busch? Well, he is just too talented of a driver to be sitting without a win at this point of the season, and he is overdue. He has six straight top-10 finishes in Michigan, and his AFP across the past four runs is a healthy 4.5.
Michigan International Speedway long-shot bets
If you’re thinking a little outside of the box, consider Ganassi Racing’s KURT BUSCH (+2800). Busch has been to Victory Lane at Michigan three times, although he also has eight DNFs to lead all active drivers. Three of his past four starts at Michigan have resulted in a finish of sixth or better.
If you’re looking for a REALLY long long-shot driver, look to RYAN PREECE (+50000). It sounds crazy, but a $1 bet could net you $500, so the risk is minimal. He was seventh at this track in the fall race and is coming off a respectable 16th-place run last week in New Hampshire where he was top 10 late in the race before fizzling.
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