Justin Herbert: Miami Dolphins
Certainly in the wake of the “Rise of Burrow,” the expectations have been that the Miami Dolphins would take Tagovailoa at some point in the first round, either with their pick at five, or by trading up to get the Alabama quarterback.
But with some recent moves the Dolphins have made along the coaching staff, along with what Herbert does best as a quarterback, if the Oregon product is going to be in the best position to be successful in the NFL, a spot down in South Beach might make the most sense.
Let’s talk about the pros and cons of Herbert’s game. At the outside he is a quarterback with a good to elite arm, who understands leverage in the passing game extremely well. Take, for example, this back shoulder throw he put on film against the University of California from his 2018 season:
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Oregon runs a switch verticals concept along the left sideline, and Herbert sees that the defender on the boundary route has inside leverage. So the quarterback executes a back shoulder throw, more than 40 yards downfield, and puts it right on the money with velocity.
That is Herbert at his best.
What makes Herbert a perhaps difficult evaluation is that the Oregon offense was not built to highlight the professional prospects of its quarterbacks. It was designed to get the ball out of the quarterback’s hands to its playmakers as quickly as possible, and often in space. Watch Herbert and you will study a game filled with bubble and smoke screens, and not a ton of opportunities to examine how he can attack the middle of the field or make full-field reads.
Now consider the Dolphins’ new head coach: Chan Gailey.
Gailey was one of the first coaches to infuse his offense with a spread look, similar to what the Ducks have been running for years. Gailey’s offenses have been known to attack defenses by stretching them horizontally, attacking outside of the numbers and picking opportunities to hit the defense downfield. Conceptually, this fits extremely well with what Herbert has been running the past few seasons. Such an offense would ease his transition to the NFL nicely.
Finally, the Dolphins have indicated that they would like to inject some athleticism into the quarterback position. Herbert also brings that to the table, which he displayed both on film and at the combine.
Weeks ago Tagovailoa seemed like the obvious choice for the Dolphins, but with the hire of Gailey and what Herbert does best, perhaps this is the right landing spot.