The Cincinnati Bengals could clutch a playoff seed or potentially be effectively all of the way out of the running by the time the Week 14 slate concludes, depending on the outcome of their AFC encounter with the Indianapolis Colts.
Cincinnati’s shocking performance last Monday on primetime to save the season has put them in this spot. Backup Jake Browning went 32-of-37 with 354 yards and two total touchdowns in an upset of Jacksonville, earning weekly AFC honors in the process.
Sunday’s game against the Colts might come down to how much his performance regresses.
Because a regression is a certainty. No team the rest of the way is going to get caught off guard by the backup and now what the offense wants to do with him under center is all over the film.
Still, even a regression might be just enough to slip past the Colts.
The Colts are 7-5 and winners of four in a row, though every team they’ve defeated during that stretch has been at least two games under .500, including three-win New England and one-win Carolina.
Offensively, the Colts have struggled without breakout rookie passer Anthony Richardson, with Gardner Minshew boasting just 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions over 12 games. The unit also won’t have star running back Jonathan Taylor on Sunday.
And defensively, the Colts rank in the bottom five with 24.7 points allowed per game on average and in the bottom seven with 133.3 rushing yards allowed per game. Notably, the unit does get after quarterbacks often, with the 42 sacks ranked among the league leaders.
Even then, the Colts ruled out two defensive starters on Saturday, forcing them to rely on a rookie and undrafted corner to cover the duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
That’s where this prediction needs to focus the most, really. Starting duos have problems with Chase and Higgins, so everyone taking the field on Sunday will know what the Bengals intend to do.
Yet with the way the offense for Browning is designed, he should have high-percentage throws often enough that create big YAC opportunities for his weapons.
Barring boneheaded turnovers as the regression kicks in, the Bengals should be able to put together plenty of scoring drives to win this one. It could be more proof yet again that a further commitment to the run, play-action and bootlegs is just what even Joe Burrow’s offense needs next year.
Unlike last Monday’s game, the Bengals have the better roster at almost every spot and if Browning can come close to what he did last time out, one could make the same argument at quarterback, too.
Provided the defense doesn’t turn in a stunningly bad performance against a backup (they mostly kept Travis Etienne Jr. in check last week), the dramatically new-looking offense should be able to outpace Minshew.
Prediction: Bengals 28, Colts 21
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