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The Joe Burrow vs. Justin Herbert showdown from the 2020 NFL draft on Sunday features critical surrounding circumstances when the Cincinnati Bengals host the Los Angeles Chargers.
For example, Burrow has been great this year most of the time — but Sunday has the feel of another Joe Mixon game. The star running back rushed for a career-high 165 yards and two scores in the blowout win over the Steelers last week.
Fast forward to this week, Mixon gets to face a Chargers defense ranked dead last against the run, surrendering an average of 145.3 yards per game on the ground. The defense as a whole allows 26.6 points per game, the NFL’s fourth-worst mark.
Herbert, the sixth-overall pick in the same draft Burrow went first, has once again been spectacular while completing 66 percent of his passes with 24 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
But Herbert’s offensive line, while boasting a couple of nice pieces, has let up 122 pressures and 17 sacks this season, so it’s something the Bengals can exploit with Trey Hendrickson and others. And Herbert’s weapons have drummed up the second-most drops in the NFL at 28.
None of this is to suggest the Bengals will cruise to a win, of course. But the Chargers have to make a big trip for a kickoff time they’re not used to, too. There’s a reason they’re 6-5 but just 2-4 over their last six after a hot 4-1 start to the season.
Still, if there was a team during this stretch the Bengals were likeliest to lose to, it’s Herbert’s Chargers merely because of the quarterback x-factor, especially since Herbert has so many quality weapons around him.
But when it comes to prediction time, it’s really hard to go against a Bengals team hitting its stride with two wins in a row, an improved offensive line since the bye and a defense that can at times look like the best in the league. If the Bengals pounce to an early lead, then sit on the running game, it should equate to a win.
Prediction: Bengals 28, Chargers 20
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