There is a lot of buzz around Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams.
A lot can happen between now and the playoffs, but right now, the Rams (2-0) seem like the biggest threat in the NFC to the defending Super Bowl-champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Rams head coach Sean McVay upgraded to Stafford from Jared Goff at quarterback, and the offense already is flourishing as a result.
Where the Rams struggled in recent years, deep downfield, they now have an opportunity to attack.
This week will be their biggest challenge yet, as the mighty Bucs (2-0) roll into Southern California, with a formidable defense that boasts star linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White and impactful pass-rushers in Ndamukong Suh and Vita Vea. The Rams did catch a break with the news that outside linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul will miss the game due to a shoulder injury.
The Bucs love to blitz — yet David and White rank third and fourth in the league among linebackers this season, respectively, in frequency of dropping back into coverage, according to Pro Football Focus. That means the pressure on Stafford could come from anywhere — stunts from the defensive line, or delayed blitzes from the outside linebackers or secondary. Stafford would be wise to stay in the pocket, read the defense and get rid of the ball relatively quickly in such situations.
Let’s analyze how the Rams offense already has evolved with Stafford and how it matches up with the Bucs defense.
Last year, Goff and the Rams struggled to let plays develop.
In the play above, the Dolphins secondary switches up the look. As the safety drops down into the route at the bottom of the screen, it forces Goff to sit in the pocket just a tad longer than he likes. As a result, he ended up checking the ball down to his running back.
McVay often had to adjust his looks to cater to Goff, who needed to rely on his receivers to get open. So the Rams used plenty of crossers, hitches and quick outs to give their receivers opportunities to make plays.
Unfortunately, it got to a point where Goff wasn’t able to complete those layups and convert critical third downs. Those struggles led Los Angeles to make the blockbuster deal to acquire Stafford, who has all the tools the Rams need to be successful.
Check out the differences between Goff and Stafford when rolling out of the pocket to throw downfield.
Unlike Goff at left, Stafford has the ability to remain patient in the pocket, slide up to avoid the rush and sling it downfield. He doesn’t try to overextend the play with his legs. He just trusts his arm and the offense.
Last week against the Indianapolis Colts, there were times where Stafford had to remain on his back foot and wait for a play to develop. Although Rams receivers have the ability to separate early, they’re at their best when the quarterback has time to allow them to get deep. This could cause a problem for ordinary defenses, but the Bucs know how to bring pressure from many directions.
In Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott, Tampa Bay racked up a total of 24 pressures, according to PFF. The Bucs definitely will want to generate pressure against Stafford as well, because of the frequency with which they drop the inside linebackers into coverage and have the safeties step up. That will give Stafford less time in the pocket and make it more difficult for him to go through all his reads.
Indeed, pressure will be the key to success for the Buccaneers on Sunday.
Against the Colts, as the pressure closed in on Stafford and the outside corners were in man-to-man coverage, the zone coverage dropped deep, forcing a checkdown.
The Bucs surely are aware of another statistic: Stafford loves throwing to the middle of the field.
Over the past two weeks, Stafford has attempted the majority of his passes over the middle. In the clips below, he spreads the ball around to Cooper Kupp over the middle, Tyler Higbee on a rub route and Robert Woods on a deep in-route.
If the Bucs are able to take away the middle by allowing short passes to the outside, they have a chance to force turnovers. That’s exactly how the Colts came away with one last week.
This game offers a delicious matchup of elite offenses, led by Stafford and Tom Brady, against star-studded defenses.
If the Bucs expect to win on the road this week, a lot will depend on their ability to confuse Stafford with a variety of pressure.