The strongest PGA Tour field of the year is in San Diego, California, for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. The first two rounds will be played on the North Course with the weekend played on the South Course. The South Course will host the 2021 U.S. Open scheduled for June 17-20. Below, we look at the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open odds, and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions to win.
Four of the top seven golfers in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings are in attendance, as are last week’s winner Si Woo Kim and defending champion Marc Leishman. The European Tour’s Dubai Desert Classic is poaching a few of the world’s top-ranked golfers, including Tyrrell Hatton and Collin Morikawa.
2021 Farmers Insurance Open betting picks – Favorite
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 1:15 p.m. ET.
Marc Leishman (+3300)
Leishman was off last week following a T-4 finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii. The 2020 champion did so while gaining 2.68 strokes per round putting with 1.58 Strokes Gained: Approach per round. Both of those aspects of his game were sharp in Hawaii, and he also gained 1.86 strokes per round from tee-to-green.
The Australian has played 44 career rounds at Torrey Pines’ South Course with an average of 1.68 strokes gained on the field per round. He had four top-10 finishes in this event in 10 appearances before winning last year.
Last year’s win came against a similar strength of field with many of the top odds favorites back again. Leishman may have relied a little too heavily on his putter in 2020, but he knows these greens well, and his irons are in excellent form. He’s a good value while sharing the 11th-best odds.
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2021 Farmers Insurance Open betting picks – Contender
Gary Woodland (+8000)
Woodland’s T-16 finish last week was his best result since a T-5 at the Workday Charity Open last summer. His strengths last week were 1.32 SG: Tee-to-Green and 0.90 SG: Off-the-Tee per round. His driver will need to be a strength at the 7,765-yard, par-72 South Course.
The 2019 U.S. Open winner shares the 29th-best odds to win this week. He is 29th by the odds to win the 2021 U.S. Open in five months but at a considerably lower price of +6600 in a stronger field.
The course conditions this week will more closely resemble Pebble Beach Golf Links where Woodland won at 13 under than they will in June. Tiger Woods won the last U.S. Open at Torrey Pines at just 1-under par.
2021 Farmers Insurance Open betting picks – Long shot
Joel Dahmen (+12500)
There have been few long-shot winners of this event in recent years, with Scott Stallings in 2014 being the last to rank outside of the top 100 in the Official World Golf Ranking at the time of their victory. For that reason, I’m only willing to go as far as Dahmen for a long-shot bet this week.
He ranks 65th in the OWGR but 27th in the Golfweek rankings. He missed the cut at minus-1 last week, but he led the field with 1.94 SG: Off-the-Tee through his 36 holes.
Dahmen has still never won on the PGA Tour, but he has performed well in big tournaments and on long courses, including a T-9 finish in this event in 2019.
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