In advance of Thursday night’s Kansas City Chiefs-Denver Broncos game, Chiefs Wire examines the matchup with fantasy football projections for Kansas City players courtesy of our colleagues at The Huddle.
The Kansas City Chiefs won 22-6 when the Denver Broncos visited Arrowhead Stadium in Week 13. Neither team did much on offense, but the Broncos lost the ball three times. The Broncos’ offense has remained lethargic for the past four weeks, while the Chiefs have scored at least 31 points in each successive game. The Patrick Mahomes vs. Teddy Bridgewater matchup didn’t go well last time, and swapping out for Drew Lock is not likely to improve anything for Denver.
The 11-5 Chiefs lost a close one to the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, and that ended an eight-game win streak. It also leaves them tied with the Tennessee Titans for the AFC’s No. 1 seed, and tiebreakers have the Chiefs as No. 2 going into this weekend. If the Chiefs win and the Titans lose in Houston, the Chiefs could regain the top spot. If the Chiefs lose, they could fall back into a tie with the Bengals and Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs already own the AFC West title, and their only gain this week is positioning.
Quarterback
Mahomes only passed for 184 yards and no scores in the first meeting with the Broncos. That meeting was during the midseason stretch when the Chiefs offense started struggling and posted five games with either one or zero passing scores along with moderate yardage. Mahomes has returned to form for the past month, passing for at least two scores in each game and racking up at least 250 passing yards in each.
Patrick Mahomes projection vs. Broncos
Fantasy Points: 25
Passing: 260 yds, 2 TDs
Rushing: 40 yds
Running backs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran for 54 yards on 14 carries in Week 13 and added three receptions for 28 yards. He was inactive last week with a shoulder injury and is no lock to play on Sunday after not practicing last week. Darrel Williams (14 carries, 88 yards, two TDs) was the most effective Chief against the Bengals, and he added three catches for 19 yards — all of which could have gone to Edwards-Helaire and his patient fantasy owners in their league championships. Derrick Gore only ran three times but gained 37 yards and almost scored. Gore is not reliable enough for a fantasy start, but Williams is more than adequate as a replacement.
Darrel Williams projection vs. Broncos
Fantasy Points: 16
Rushing: 50 yds, 1 TD
Receiving: 3 rec, 20 yds
Wide receivers
Tyreek Hill was limited to just two catches for 22 yards as the Chiefs’ top wideout in Week 13. Hill has scored in just one of the past six games, and his yardage has tended to remain around 40 yards at most. He has the potential for a monster game in any week but turns in dramatically different performances at times. He’s logged three different 140-yard efforts and yet fell below 20 yards in four other matchups. Byron Pringle, Mecole Hardman, and Demarcus Robinson mix in with the occasion touchdown, but none are reliable enough to merit a fantasy start.
Tyreek Hill projection vs. Broncos
Fantasy Points: 18
Receiving: 5 rec, 70 yds, 1 TD
Mecole Hardman projection vs. Broncos
Fantasy Points: 7
Receiving: 2 rec, 50 yds
Tight end
Travis Kelce recorded just 27 yards on three catches against the Broncos in the teams’ first matchup. Not unlike Hill, Kelce has produced a wide span of weekly results. He recently blew up with a season-best 10 catches for 191 yards and two scores at the Chargers, but that was in the middle of two sub-30-yard games. Kelce has the upside for game-changing production whenever he lines up, but like the other Chiefs, he’s lacked consistency despite being the current No. 2 fantasy tight end.
Travis Kelce projection vs. Broncos
Fantasy Points: 16
Receiving: 4 rec, 60 yds, 1 TD
Match to defense
Neither team was productive in the last meeting, and the Chiefs were at home. But the Broncos offense has declined as the season has progressed, and the Chiefs are playing better and regaining their high-powered form. The Broncos’ failings are not because of their defense, which ranks above average in all fantasy categories. No opponent has thrown for more than two scores on them, and they have allowed only two running backs to rush in a score over the past nine games.
The Chiefs handled the Broncos offense and kept the game score low in Week 13, and here a month later, not much has changed other than the Chiefs’ playing better, if only intermittently for the stars of Kelce and Hill. Mahomes will throw for more than 184 yards this meeting, because he’ll need it. Both Hill and Kelce are fantasy starters regardless of matchup, and this is no different. But the Broncos’ secondary was good enough to limit them before and will again. Either player could catch a touchdown on any play, but this is a tougher venue than the Chiefs typically face.
Edwards-Helaire was held to moderate yardage in Week 13. Moving this to Denver won’t improve the outlook, but it doesn’t matter. Any starting running back for the Chiefs is always fantasy-ready.