In advance of Sunday’s Denver Broncos-Detroit Lions game, Broncos Wire examines the matchup with fantasy football projections for Denver players courtesy of our colleagues at The Huddle.
The Denver Broncos (6-6) continue to be inconsistent but secured their last two wins against teams with winning records. The Detroit Lions (1-10-1) not only notched their first win last week, but it was a last-second, improbable score that went their way for once.
This is the lightest matchup left on the schedule and they get the benefit of facing the Lions, who might still be a bit hungover from all that celebrating last week.
The Broncos pass offense went stale at Kansas City last week, and even the impressive rushing of Javonte Williams couldn’t make a difference in the low-scoring contest. Passing has consistently been the shortfall in Denver’s losses, and it hasn’t improved as the season has progressed, despite getting the receivers healthy and back together. The Broncos are in the AFC West basement, but they are only two games out of first place, with the final three games providing the second meeting with each divisional rival. The Broncos control their destiny and are still in the hunt for a wild card at worst, but the decline in passing production will continue to be their unavoidable limitation.
Quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t thrown for more than one score since Week 7, and his passing yardage hasn’t topped 257 yards in that time regardless of the game situation or having a full, healthy complement of receivers available. Bridgewater started the season with a handful of solid performances, not unlike many other quarterbacks, but his production has declined since midseason with no signs of improvement. Bridgewater is signed for just this season, and the 2022 Broncos are likely to feature a new quarterback.
Teddy Bridgewater projection vs. Lions
Fantasy Points: 16.5
Passing: 230 yds, 1 TD
Rushing: 10 yds
Running backs
Melvin Gordon was inactive last week with hip and shoulder injuries, but head coach Vic Fangio said he hoped that Gordon could return. He’ll be held out of our projections until he practices and is cleared. He’ll likely want to get back onto the field just to save his job after Williams gave a taste of what 2022 could be. The rookie ran for 102 yards on 23 carries and caught six of nine targets for 76 yards and a touchdown. Williams handled all but four carries for the backfield and ripped off chunks of yardage as both a rusher and a receiver. That gives Williams two straight weeks with over 100 total yards and a score.
Gordon is due to be a free agent in the offseason, though it isn’t impossible that he could re-sign since the backfield has become the strength of the offense. The rookie Williams has looked very sharp when allowed to play as the workhorse of the backfield.
Javonte Williams projection vs. Lions
Fantasy points: 24
Rushing: 110 yds, 1 TD
Receiving: 4 rec, 30 yds
Wide receivers
The diminishing production from the passing game has all but completely stripped the fantasy value of this unit. Courtland Sutton was a strong weekly play through Week 8 but then declined when Jerry Jeudy returned from injured reserve. Sutton gained over 90 yards in three matchups and scored twice in the first half of the season. For the past four weeks, he’s failed to catch more than two passes or gain more than 29 yards.
Jeudy has yet to score in 2021, but he’s offered 50 to 60 yards almost every week. That production appears to have been stolen directly from Sutton’s wallet. Tim Patrick experienced a similar decline to Sutton but hasn’t been a reliable factor this year. If the Broncos are to have any realistic chance at an eventual wild card, this unit has to improve and so far, the production of Bridgewater hasn’t shown any signs of improvement.
Jerry Jeudy projection vs. Lions
Fantasy points: 17
Receiving: 5 rec, 60 yds, 1 TD
Tim Patrick projection vs. Lions
Fantasy points: 7
Receiving: 3 rec, 40 yds
Courtland Sutton projection vs. Lions
Fantasy points: 6
Receiving: 3 rec, 30 yds
Tight end
Same story here. Noah Fant offered the occasional touchdown to start the year but has fallen from fantasy consideration since Week 8. He’s more likely to turn in 30 yards or so in most weeks but was held below 15 yards twice in the past month.
Noah Fant projection vs. Lions
Fantasy points: 9
Receiving: 4 rec, 50 yds
Match to defense
The Lions’ problem has been much more about an offense that cannot get into gear than their defense, which has been slightly below average in most games. Where this matchup will turn is the rushing effort of the Broncos. Most of their opponents feature a rusher with 90-plus yards, and four of the five 100-yard rushing performances allowed were in road venues. This could be another monster showing by Williams, and if Gordon returns to split the backfield again, both rushers should be in fantasy lineups.
The Lions’ secondary is nothing special, and they have allowed seven 100-yard performances by a wideout, including three that exceeded 150 yards. But that sort of production has not been seen by a Bronco since the start of the season. Given the likely success of the rushing effort, moderate passing yardage and one touchdown is the only reliable forecast for this week. There is minor upside for all offensive skill players whenever playing the Lions, but there is no reason to pass much when they run can win the game and control the clock.