In advance of Sunday’s Denver Broncos-Kansas City Chiefs game, Broncos Wire examines the matchup with fantasy football projections for Denver players courtesy of our colleagues at The Huddle.
This week is the first meeting of the season for these AFC West rivals. The Denver Broncos (6-5) handled the Chargers last week and are in a three-way tie for No. 2 in the division (or the cellar, depending on how you look at it). The Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) are on a four-game winning streak and tragically logged three wins while never scoring over 20 points.
Played in Kansas City, this is expected to be one of the bigger winning margins of the weekend. This game either spreads the division out more in the standings, or AFC West becomes a giant knot with no clarity until the end of the season.
The Chiefs swept the Broncos in 2020, winning 22-16 at home and 43-16 in Denver.
The win over the visiting Chargers last week knotted up the AFC West, and if they’re able to beat the Chiefs, the division could end up with all four teams at 7-5. But the Broncos are inconsistent and have wild swings in scoring from week to week. The biggest determinant of the Broncos winning is if their opponent can stop the run, because Denver’s backfield duo presents a powerful 1-2 punch, but quarterback Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t turned in a notable performance since Week 6. The Broncos’ destiny is in their own hands. The final six games contain a road trip to each AFC West team and a Week 18 hosting of the Chiefs.
Quarterback
Bridgewater injured his lower leg in the win over the Chargers but returned to play after Drew Lock threw an interception, fumbled, got sacked, and only completed four of seven passes for 25 yards. There’s been no word that his injury is expected to be an ongoing issue, but he’s not been a significant factor in recent weeks. Bridgewater hasn’t passed for more than 250 yards in the last five games and totaled just five passing touchdowns in that time. Bridgewater threw a touchdown to a wide receiver just once in those five contests.
Teddy Bridgewater projection vs. Chiefs
Fantasy Points: 16
Passing: 240 yds, 1 TD
Running backs
The backfield has been effective in splitting the workload between Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon, and with around 25 carries or more in games, there is enough to ensure both carry fantasy value, even if it is less than being a true primary rusher. Williams scored his third touchdown of the year in Week 12 when he gained 54 yards on 14 rushes, and he also became the leading receiver with three receptions for 57 yards. Melvin Gordon is the more likely to score a short touchdown, but Williams does a little more as a receiver. The Broncos use their backfield for at least one score in each of the last six weeks.
Melvin Gordon III projection vs. Chiefs
Fantasy points: 13
Rushing: 40 yds, 1 TD
Receiving: 2 rec, 10 yds
Javonte Williams projection vs. Chiefs
Fantasy points: 11
Rushing: 40 yds
Receiving: 4 rec, 30 yds
Wide receivers
Denver has a capable trio of wideouts, and each has produced well in the past. But Courtland Sutton‘s hot start to the season ended in Week 7, and he’s never scored or gained more than 68 yards. In the two recent homestands against Washington and the Chargers, Sutton was held to fewer than 15 yards. Jerry Jeudy returned from injured reserve in Week 8 but hasn’t fared any better. He’s been mildly more productive with yardage and comes off a Week 12 where he only caught two passes for 25 yards. Throw in Tim Patrick, and the wideouts are mostly blocking and offering mediocre production in recent weeks. As disappointing as the results are with Bridgewater as the passer, there’s nothing better on the depth chart.
Jerry Jeudy projection vs. Chiefs
Fantasy points: 11
Receiving: 6 rec, 50 yds
Courtland Sutton projection vs. Chiefs
Fantasy points: 9
Receiving: 4 rec, 50 yds
Tim Patrick projection vs. Chiefs
Fantasy points: 7
Receiving: 3 rec, 40 yds
Tight end
Noah Fant shows up about every other week and totals four touchdowns on the season. But in the same vein as the wideouts, his production has taken the same nosedive, and he’s had two games with fewer than 15 yards over the past three weeks. Even against the No. 28 defense versus tight ends in the Chargers, he only caught three passes for 12 yards.
Noah Fant projection vs. Chiefs
Fantasy points: 15
Receiving: 5 rec, 40 yds, 1 TD
Match to defense
The problem this week is that the Chiefs haven’t allowed any runner to score since Week 4. The only running back in that time to rush for more than 60 yards was the healthy Derrick Henry (29-86). The Broncos could have moderate success running the ball if they keep the Chiefs’ scoring down. But even then, it gets split into two between Gordon and Williams.
The Chiefs’ secondary was much victimized over the initial five games of the season but has since improved. They’ve not allowed more than two passing touchdowns and kept most opponents below 225 passing yards including Dak Prescott in Week 11. Bridgewater’s string of low-yardage, one-touchdown passing fits right into what the Chiefs allow.
The Chiefs’ biggest weakness is versus tight ends, who have scored six times on them — and five gained over 50 yards when they played. All of the Broncos receivers have been more risk than reward for the past month, and that extends to Fant. The wideouts are even less likely to score than Fant.