In the new-look world of the NFL, the quarterback position has become one that every team looks to land the player who will be “The Man” for a decade in the draft. You rarely see the Kirk Cousins scenario anymore, where a player who can command franchise money hits the free-agent market. If you’ve got a good one, you keep him. If not, you run him out of town.
Historically, the miss-rate on those coveted rookies has outweighed the hit-rate on landing a franchise QB, but when you look around the NFL, the proliferation of college quarterbacks who post eye-popping numbers (often in a limited sample size) have almost completely transformed the position with saviors who are almost all still in their first NFL contract.
Of the NFL’s 32 teams, 13 of them have invested a high draft pick on a quarterback over the last four years (Arizona did it twice) and the numbers just keep growing.
All four rookies taken in the first two rounds of the 2019 draft are already starting and giving reason to believe they are the guy moving forward – first-rounders Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones and Dwayne Haskins and second-rounder Drew Lock. Four teams locked in for now.
In 2018, the first round saw Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson taken in the first round (Josh Rosen will have a job, but not as a starter). Another four teams out of the mix.
In 2017, you had Mitch Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson taken with three of the first 12 picks of the draft – all selected with picks their franchise traded up to acquire, which came with debt equity in terms of picks traded away to move up. None of them are going anywhere any time soon (to the chagrin of Bears fans considering what Mahomes and Watson have accomplished).
In 2016, the first two picks were used on Jared Goff and Carson Wentz. Both franchises have remained invested in both as their guy.
When you do the math on guys with less than four years in the league, more than 40 percent of the franchises are convinced they have their long-term guy at quarterback locked, loaded and in place.
That’s a significant portion of the league, but it doesn’t end there. There are a half-dozen other franchises at a current crossroads at quarterback that could be dipping their toe in the draft water.
In Cincinnati, the starting QB for 2020 probably isn’t currently on the roster. In line for the No. 1 overall pick, Ohio native Joe Burrow seems to have the inside track for more reason than one as the team seems poised to move on from Andy Dalton as its starter.
In Carolina, while Kyle Allen has cooled off considerably, given the firing of Ron Rivera, the idea of a new coach moving on from Cam Newton has more viability than it used to. Is Allen the answer or do the Panthers look to the draft to step back up at quarterback.
In Detroit, Matthew Stafford isn’t guaranteed to have a career that lasts much longer. He grandfathered in the rookie deals where the No. 1 overall pick was one of the highest paid players in the NFL. Given the health issues with his wife and his most recent injury being broken bones in his back, the Lions need to find a successor and their record is bad enough to consider it in 2020.
Andrew Luck shocked the NFL with his retirement. Jacoby Brissett is the man for now, but the Colts could be in line to consider drafting a QB they like because Indy is a franchise spoiled by stinking it out at a time when Peyton Manning and Luck were both available to them.
In Miami, Ryan Fitzpatrick has never been a team’s long-term answer and he isn’t with the Dolphins. Rosen clearly doesn’t seem to be the answer because it didn’t take long for the staff to pass on him as the starter. Like Cincinnati, their 2020 starter likely isn’t currently on the roster.
In Tennessee, the Marcus Mariota era is over. Is Ryan Tannehill the long-term answer? We’ll probably find out in the offseason.
What makes it even more likely that the youth boom at quarterback is going to continue its seismic shift is that four other quarterbacks – Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger – are all nearing the end of their careers and will need to be replaced.
As the NFL has transformed into a pass-heavy league, they have adopted concepts that came from the high school and college game with spread out, four-receiver sets that look to create and exploit mismatch possibilities. The result? As many young quarterbacks being asked to carry a franchise on the shoulders, make an immediate impact and become the face of a franchise.
From the looks of things, that trend isn’t going to stop any time soon.
Here is the Week 15 Fantasy Market Report:
RISERS
Cole Beasley – He hasn’t been a huge fantasy player in Buffalo, but he has been rewarding fantasy owners recently. He has just five games with more 70 yards, but three of them have been in the last five. He has scored touchdowns in each of the last three games and six of the last eight. Unless you have a lead-pipe lock duo or trio of receivers, he’s making it difficult to keep him on team benches.
Joe Mixon – In a lot of leagues, he simply cut loose by fantasy owners because he has so many bad games to start the season. But, over his last five, he has rushed for 79 or more yards four times, including games with 114 and 146 and has scored touchdowns in three of the last four games. The Bengals are hot garbage, but Mixon is still giving it everything he has.
Drew Lock – He spent much of the season as the third QB option at quarterback until finally getting his shot two weeks ago. He has thrown for 443 yards and five touchdowns in two games – both Denver wins against 2018 playoff teams Los Angeles and Houston – and is setting himself up to be the long-term answer at quarterback. You may not want to start him with your season on the line in Week 15, but those who played him at Houston went to the pay window.
Raheem Mostert – When Matt Breida got hurt and was sidelined, the initial plan was to make Tevin Coleman the primary guy. That got scuttled and Mostert has scored four touchdowns over the last three games. Breida came back this week, but it didn’t keep Mostert from scoring twice. Over the first 11 games of the season, he rushed 73 times for 393 yards and one TD. Over the last two – at Baltimore and at New Orleans – he rushed 28 times for 215 yards with two rushing TDs and one receiving TD. The 49ers went up against two teams they can logically expect to see in January or February and Mostert has become the featured back.
Robby Anderson – He has teased fantasy owners with impressive stretches of games strung together over the years. He’s on another one of those rolls now. He has scored three touchdowns in his last four games and, over the last three, has 18 catches for 303 yards and two TDs. If you have an open flex option, he’s worth considering – even against Baltimore.
FALLERS
Patrick Mahomes – Nobody who has Mahomes will ever bench him, but, in his last three games, he has accounted for just four touchdowns (three passing, one rushing) and has weekly yardage totals of 182, 175 and 283. While those aren’t great numbers by any stretch, when you have the unrealistic expectations that get placed on Mahomes week after week because over the past year and a half. Fantasy owners have leaned on Mahomes all season and he’s having his least productive fantasy weeks at the very worst time.
Tyler Lockett – What makes Lockett such a formidable fantasy receiver is his consistency and his ability, when a team can stop him from the slot, abusing them. He has three games with 10 or more receptions, two games with more than 150 receiving yards. But, in his last three games, Lockett has had his four worst yardage days of the season (43, 38, 26 and 0) with no TDs. In his first nine games, he was targeted 66 times and caught 55 passes for 724 yards and six touchdowns. In the last four games, he has been targeted just 15 times, catching eight passes for 107 yards and no TDs – not the kind of numbers that keep you in a fantasy lineup for long, especially when championships are on the line.
Tom Brady – Brady came out of the gate hot this season, throwing two or more touchdowns four times in his first six games and topping 300 passing yards four times. In his last eight games, he has thrown one TD or fewer six times and, in his last seven, has just more games with 190 passing yards or less (two) than 300-yard games (one). If your season was on the line Sunday counting on Brady, you went home disappointed.
Brandin Cooks – What has made Cooks an enigma throughout his career has been his freakish potential for the back-breaking 70-yard touchdown reception. Prior to getting injured against the Bengals in Week 8 leading up to the bye, he wasn’t tearing things up. He had just one game with more than 75 yards and one touchdown. Since returning three games ago, not only hasn’t he scored, he has been targeted just eight times, catching four passes for 56 yards, including no receptions in a huge Sunday night win for the Rams where the offense rolled. It’s hard to endorse even considering him if you’re still alive in your fantasy playoffs.
Jimmy Graham – One of the all-time great tight ends, his production has dropped to the point that he is barely serviceable as a fantasy option. His high yardage mark has been just 65 yards, has 20 or fewer yards in seven games and hasn’t scored a touchdown in his last six games. His days of being a rubber stamp in fantasy lineups appear to be over.