Everyone playing fantasy football should be looking to land optimal value with each pick, but anyone with experience knows that rarely actually happens. We all have our favorites for whom we’re willing to reach, which tends to drive down the draft stock of other players. As a result, we see trends that produce undervalued fantasy football picks.
In this release, undervalued players will be addressed in the context of 12-team, 16-round drafts. The following players represent the best bang for your buck in relation to their average draft placement (ADP).
Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com and use PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. The figures are based on redraft-only leagues, conducted after the 2021 NFL Draft.
2021 Fantasy football value buys
1) RB J.D. McKissic, Washington Football Team (ADP: 13:08)
McKissic has shown glimpses at times before stopping in Washington last year and thoroughly displaying his skills for all to see. He finished the 2020 campaign with the second-most receptions from the position, just three behind Alvin Kamara’s 83 grabs. The 110 targets sent McKissic’s way led all backs and even tied for 22nd among receivers. He will see fewer looks now that Washington added Curtis Samuel, but this offense isn’t not going to totally abandon the role of its running backs in the aerial game after upgrading the quarterback position. McKissic has basically no challenger to his role, and Antonio Gibson saw his involvement as a receiver slightly dip as his backfield mate’s increased toward the end of the season. McKissic finished RB17 in PPR last year and currently is going at the inexcusable placement of RB47 in drafts. Use that obscene disparity to your advantage when looking to wait to snag your RB3.
2) RB Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers (ADP: 14:10)
The writing was on the wall last year for a potential letdown after consecutive explosive seasons from Christian McCaffrey as he totaled the league’s largest two-year workload heading into 2020 drafts. Few people expected such a true disastrous showing, however. It led to the fantasy revelation of running back Mike Davis, whose services now belong to the Atlanta Falcons. This free-agent defection led to Carolina investing a fourth-round selection in Hubbard. He’s a similar back in the sense he can rush and receive the ball without missing a beat. Should something happen with CMC once again, the system bodes with for the top backup to offer meaningful fantasy returns on a minimal investment.
3) WR Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints (ADP: 3:01)
Once the quarterback situation is publicly settled, Thomas should see his draft stock surge if Jameis Winston is named the starter. Last draft season’s unanimous WR1 suffered through injuries in 2020 and no longer has Drew Brees tossing the rock his direction. Six quarterbacks currently go ahead of Thomas, which is a strategic mistake most commonly found in casual draft circles. It’s fairly rare to see more than one go that early in advanced leagues. Scratch Thomas’ historic 2019 season and average his 2017 and ’18 stats to get 18.1 PPR points per game. That would have placed him WR6 last year, WR4 in 2019, and the same in 2017. Winston helped create a pair of elite fantasy receivers in 2019 with Tampa, and the Saints have no other established pass-catchers not named Alvin Kamara. Thomas should be showered in targets once again.
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4) WR Marvin Jones Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 13:06)
No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence is the real deal, and he should come out the gates slinging the ball. The Jaguars have a work-in-progress defense to amplify his volume. The offensive line is respectable, and the backfield is among the better ones in football, so he should have the necessary support to go through his progressions and not face too many pressure-heavy defensive fronts. A receiving corps with several capable targets will alleviate defensive scrutiny from Jones. The former Cincinnati and Detroit veteran has a nose for the end zone, and finding paydirt will be his best route to getting into fantasy lineups. Jones has scored once every 8.1 grabs in his career and once every 7.3 catches in the past four years, or 54 games. Those are elite figures accrued across multiple systems and from several quarterbacks, making him deserving of a WR4 placement for routine flex utility.
5) TE Jonnu Smith, New England Patriots (ADP: 12:02)
Does anyone believe the Pats shelled out that much cash to ignore Smith in the passing game? Or, is it that the bulk of drafters are scared off by the quarterback situation? How about the fear of Hunter Henry also being added to the offense? The latter two carry the most weight and are, in a sense, tied to first question. At any rate, Smith is a dynamic weapon and as dangerous in the red zone as he is down the seam. Few tight ends have his vertical traits. Yes, Henry will cut into his work, but we’ve seen this offense create room for two fantasy-relevant players at the position. And then there’s that whole thing about a shaky receiving corps in effect making Smith a top-3 Pats receiver. He probably will lineup in the slot as much as any tight end. The quarterback situation works in his favor from both directions. If Cam Newton returns to form, he has found tremendous chemistry and success with the position in the past. Should rookie Mac Jones get the nod at some point, his inexperience lends to relying on the position. Smith absolutely should be drafted higher than Mike Gesicki (9th TE in ADP), Irv Smith Jr. (12th), and Evan Engram (13th). There’s a strong case he belongs ahead of Kyle Pitts, Logan Thomas and Noah Fant, too.
6) QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP: 11:04)
Currently going as QB25 in ADP, Big Ben is grossly undervalued. His days as a “set and forget” No. 1 are definitely behind him, but his 2020 campaign shows he still has something in the tank — a year after elbow reconstruction. The Steelers will run more than we saw the past two seasons, but that doesn’t mean Roethlisberger cannot be useful through increased efficiency. He has all of the weapons in place, and there’s an argument the defense has taken a step backward. At worst, he’s among the upper echelon of backups with matchup worthiness.
7) RB Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions (ADP: 14:11)
The Lions will run, run, and run some more. New head coach Dan Campbell has a tough-minded, smashmouth mentality, and the offensive line is as strong as it has been in ages. D’Andre Swift will be the primary back, and he’s teed up for a dynamic season, but there will be ample room for Williams to carve out a useful role, particularly in PPR leagues. The veteran also can fill in admirably if something unfortunate were to happen to Swift. Detroit’s receiving corps sorely lacks a top playmaker, which means more utilization for the backfield, but there is a valid fear it also will lead to more defensive attention. Williams is flying under the radar as a worthwhile RB4 with No. 3 legitimacy.
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8) QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Washington Football Team (ADP: 12:10)
The well-traveled Fitzpatrick has aged like fine wine and turns 39 in November. He has a dangerous blend of targets in his latest stop. The Washington offense has a respectable front five as well as a stable backfield to establish a lethal play-action passing game — a staple of Scott Turner’s designs. The Football Team boasts a legit WR1 in Terry McLaurin, a do-all veteran in newcomer Samuel, a capable tight end in Logan Thomas after his 2020 breakout, and one of the best checkdowns in running back J.D. McKissic. And even better yet … no first-round quarterback waiting to take Fitz’s job at the first sign of struggle (or in times of success, as we saw last year).
9) RB Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills (ADP: 10:11)
Moss was mostly irrelevant as a rookie in 2020 but also didn’t have a traditional offseason and saw Buffalo’s passing game completely take over. Defenses will have more tape on the aerial components, and Buffalo’s coaching staff should be inclined to become more balanced after ranking in the bottom 12 teams of rushing attempt percentage. That said, don’t count on a radical transformation into a power-rushing system. Moss should dramatically cut into Devin Singletary’s workload, and he clearly offers more value in the red zone. Moss was at his best when seeing more carries. He actually became more efficient as his workload grew, and the Bills would be foolish to not give him the primary share of carries while transitioning Singletary into a third-down outlet. At a minimum, Moss should carve out a flex-worthy role around the end zone.
10) WR Nelson Agholor, New England Patriots (ADP: 14:10)
Let’s say Newton returns to form and the offense is clicking. Can it happen without Agholor thriving as a vertical asset? Sure, but it will run smoother if he is a force on the outside. The Raiders proved he has a place in the league and on fantasy rosters, but current ADP figures suggest gamers aren’t on board yet with the former USC standout. He’s risky, for sure, but his current price tag mitigates the vast majority of Agholor’s perceived downside factors. He will be an erratic but effective flex play in 2021, especially so if Newton more closely resembles Superman and looks less like Clark Kent.