A Top-10 running back is a difference maker because not they score among the highest fantasy points of any position, and do so with great consistency. The position has fallen in value over the last several years and the reliance on a workhorse back wanes each season. But – there is still an undeniable advantage to owning a Top-10 fantasy running back.
Also see: Quarterback | Wide receiver | Tight end
Below are all running backs that produced a Top-10 finish in any of the past five seasons, and what they did in the other years. This shows the volatility of the position and how rarely backs actually return to the Top-10 the following season, despite the fact we all draft like they are going to repeat.
Chance of repeating Top-10 = 20%
Running backs have been on the decline for many years while backfields become more fragmented and workloads spread over more “specialists.” That’s accelerated greatly for the last two seasons, and it is not just injuries shaking up depth charts.
Consider that in the last two years, 18 running backs made the Top-10. Only Joe Mixon and Derrick Henry logged back-to-back Top-10 seasons. And both have changed teams for 2024. The volatility of the top players is dramatic and unlike any other position. Six of the 2023 Top-10 were no better than No. 33 in 2022. Austin Ekeler and Josh Jacobs were in the Top-2 for 2022 and yet fell to No. 24 and No. 27 respectively. That’s a high draft pick last year that did no better than a fantasy RB3 for your team.
The disturbing part of this is not so much the tremendous turnover at the top, but that the new batch of elite fantasy scorers are almost all coming from deep in the rankings for the one year. The position has become the host for the annual Cinderella’s to show up and then stumble the next year.
The 2023 Top-10 running backs are very well represented in fantasy drafts with seven of them again drafted in this year’s Top-10 (Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Travis Etienne, Kyren Williams, and Derrick Henry). The only Top-10 backs who fell out of the Top-10 in drafts so far have been Rachaad White (No. 14), Joe Mixon (No. 17), and Raheem Mostert (No. 32).
Hard to argue against waiting on running backs. Very hard.
Let’s make this even worse. Consider how well the Top-10 of 2021 fared just two years later.
Joe Mixon was the only running back to be Top-10 in 2021, and then again two years later. Half of the 2021 backs failed to place better than No. 33 just two seasons later.