A Top-10 running back is a difference maker because not they score among the highest fantasy points of any position, and do so with great consistency. The position has fallen in value over the last several years and the reliance on a workhorse back wanes each season. But – there is still an undeniable advantage to owning a Top-10 fantasy running back.
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Below are all running backs that produced a Top-10 finish in any of the past five seasons, and what they did in the other years. This shows the volatility of the position and how rarely backs actually return to the Top-10 the following season, despite the fact we all draft like they are going to repeat.
Wow.
Just wow.
Austin Ekeler was the only Top-10 back to repeat from 2021 in PPR scoring. Granted, Joe Mixon, Leonard Fournette, and Najee Harris fell just outside of the Top-10. But five running backs – Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Rhamondre Stevenson and Tony Pollard were Top-10 in 2022 after climbing up from a sub Top-20 season in 2021.
The impressive string of Top-10 years ended for Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott who tumbled back with ineffective years and neither appear likely to regain elite status this year, if ever again.
Interesting, too, was that while injury has an obvious impact on season stats, that wasn’t a huge culprit in the falling back of last year’s class of Top-10 backs. It was mostly less productive play, fewer touches, and playing in offenses that mostly fell collectively as well.
Nine of the ten best backs fell out of the Top-10 last year. No wonder the position witnesses a historic low in fantasy drafts. Back in the glory days of workhorse backs, there could be up to eight or nine backs taken in the first ten picks. So far this summer, it’s more often three or four.
But last year was an aberration. Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, and Dalvin Cook were all Top-10 in 2020 before having a down season in 2021. And they bounced back last year.
The takeaway from this is that fantasy drafts do reflect the volatility that we saw when 2021 stars were almost all a disappointment the next year. But Rhamondre Stevenson and Tony Pollard were the only Top-10 backs last year that had never been in that grouping. As recently as 2020, half of the top tier repeated the next year and what plays into this season is that running backs have never been cheaper to draft.