What a crazy last week as Baltimore forced the entire league into a horror spiral of reschedulings. This also affected the Week 13 slate as the Thursday game is gone, but there are now multiple Monday games and even another Tuesday game. Pittsburgh once again got screwed due to another team’s COVID issues and poor Denver was forced to play with a Practice-Squad WR as their quarterback. But at least Baltimore will only be without Lamar for one week, so it is good to see that the NFL isn’t picking favorites.
DFS: The Primetime Plus Slate
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
At least Denver gets to start an actual QB against Kansas City this week. I am unapologetically a Broncos’ Hater, and a Chiefs’ Homer, but the NFL did Denver dirty last week. Unfortunately for the Broncos, their actual QBs aren’t much better than the WR they trotted out last week. Drew Lock is their only option to put up a fight against KC, and even then it isn’t really close. If Jeff Driskel, Brett Rypien, or Blake Bortles is forced to play, just cancel this game too. Drew Lock should be able to post 275-2, mostly in garbage time. This would actually put him in the QB4 range on the S-M-T slate. As for Patrick Mahomes, the only QB on the slate with any hope of beating him would be Lamar Jackson on Tuesday. Of’ course, you would need to know 100% that he was going to play before fading Mahomes for him. Anything less than 375-3 for Mahomes would be upsetting.
Philip Lindsay left Week 12 with an injury to his knee, early reports suggest he should be ok for this game. If he plays, he has FLEX value, but Melvin Gordon is the safer TD-target. KC is actually not very good against the run, so they are both in play, but I’m not rushing to start either of them. It should be noted that KC is much more amenable to opposing pass-catching backs, and that role is Gordon’s over Lindsay. Clyde Edwards-Helaire scored in their earlier meeting and both he and Le’Veon Bell posted nice YPC. The issue was that neither had more than eight carries. Helaire is definitely leading the carry numbers over the last couple of weeks, but Bell has averaged more receptions. With KC likely ahead a lot early, odds are that we see more carries in the second half rather than passes. This suggests that Helaire is the better play. I still don’t see either of them as better than an RB4 on this elongated slate.
Jerry Jeudy is the safest play for the Broncos’ WRs. Still, I wouldn’t play him as anything more than a WR3. Tim Patrick is actually a better play as he will be lesser-owned. Both KJ Hamler and Daesean Hamilton may get enough looks to be FLEX worthy if you want additional exposure to this game. As for KC, Tyreek Hill went berzerk last week netting nearly 5X as many yards as he had in the earlier contest against Denver. After that start, using him seems like chasing points. Still, he is the top option on this slate and he has scored nine touchdowns over his last five games. Sammy Watkins finished second on the team amongst WRs in targets, and he didn’t reinjure himself. That alone makes him playable. I see him as a safe WR3 if you don’t use Hill. Demarcus Robinson was surprisingly still targeted six times with the returning Watkins. This suggests that he isn’t disappearing any time soon. I’d just be wary of using him as anything more than an exposure-play since this game could go pear-shaped fast and lead to more rushes and fewer passes. The same goes for Mecole Hardman. I’d definitely use him in Showdown, but I don’t see the volume there this week.
Noah Fant was the only Bronco to catch a pass last week. He has been getting regular targets ever since returning from injury. In their earlier meeting, Fant combined with Albert Okwuegbunam for 10-98. Albert is in the can for the rest of the year, so potentially all of that could come Fant’s way. With both Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce on this slate, I still won’t trust Fant as more than TE3. That said, his price will be much cheaper than those two, so roll away. Kelce is the best athlete on the slate. He is also the most expensive. Denver is only so-so against TEs and they held him in check last time. I cannot believe they will achieve that twice in one season. His numbers will be fine. KC’s defense is the third-best option to choose from this week. Denver’s is the twelfth-best option (and yes, there are only four defenses on the slate).
Washington Football Team @ Pittsburgh Steelers
I feel bad for Washington this week. I love their young RB and their young WR1, but they are running into a black and gold wall that will be in a foul mood due to getting done dirty by the NFL executives. Alex Smith is a streamable QB in certain situations. This isn’t one of them. His best hope is 175-2. As for Ben Roethlisberger, this isn’t a great matchup for him either. Fortunately, it is at home and he has all of his pass-catching weapons active. He will likely finish as QB4 on this slate with a pair of TDs and a sub-BigBen line.
Antonio Gibson has been one of the top-three rookie RBs this season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has begun to ease up on opposing RBs. They are still elite, just not as elite as they were earlier this year. With so many question marks at the position this week, I’ll gladly use him as RB2 or FLEX. J.D. McKissic also deserves some attention as the pass-catching option, since Washington will likely be playing from behind. James Conner missed Week 12 due to COVID. His status for this week is still in question. I’m more concerned about Pittsburgh ignoring the running game than I am about Conner’s illness. If he cannot go, Benny Snell becomes a sneaky FLEX option, but he too may be left out of the passing game.
Terry McLaurin is the only sure thing WR on Washington. Pittsburgh knows this as well and has the tools to shut him down. That said, McLaurin has done enough against very good defenses to not completely write off. I don’t see using him as anything more than a contrarian play, but the salary may be too high to even justify that. Dontrelle Inman, and the two Sims, just don’t receive enough targets to use in a bad matchup. Pittsburgh has three “stud” WRs, but Washington has allowed the second-fewest WR scores this season. Most of the damage against them has come from large-bodied outside WRs. That should favor Chase Claypool, but he has also been the least consistent of the Steelers’ big-three. I like both him and Diontae Johnson as over-priced WR2 but again I’m not racing to start any of the three since they are expensive. JuJu Smith-Schuster has the size and the talent to do something, but he still would be my third choice. James Washington has actually started to fall behind Ray-Ray McCloud on the touch list. I’ll pass on both of them.
Logan Thomas’ matchup isn’t great either, but he has been getting a lot of targets recently, especially in the red zone. I don’t like him for many yards here, but with so much attention targeted towards McLaurin, I like Thomas to score a short TD. He still is looking at a TE5 slot at best. Eric Ebron has actually been even more reliable scoring frequently of late. Washington has allowed a ton of yards, receptions, and TDs to opposing TEs this year. He will battle Fant for the TE3 slot on this docket making himself a great pivot play. Washington’s defense is usually a great play. This week, they aren’t even the best play in this game. That said, I will have some exposure to them since their pass rush is so damn good.
Buffalo Bills @ San Francisco 49ers
All of the premium QBs to face San Francisco have had their way with them. Their numbers look better because of their ability to frustrate mediocre QBs. Josh Allen is elite enough to put up a solid line here. He is no worse than the QB4 here, and I personally believe that he will finish closer to QB2 than whoever finishes as the QB4. Nick Mullens is arguably a better QB than Jimmy Garoppolo. Still, his success this week will be determined by whether or not Brandon Aiyuk plays. If Aiyuk is out there, he will likely draw Tre’Davious White’s coverage, opening things up for Deebo Samuel. This game could still become a shootout, so I definitely like Mullens on FanBall in SuperFlex, but I’ll probably pass on him as a QB1 in full Primetime slate play.
Buffalo cannot decide if Zack Moss or Devin Singletary is going to be their RB1. After a pair of duds, Singletary led the backfield again in Week 12. Unfortunately, these two splitting reps really harshes my mellow about playing either of them. It doesn’t help that San Fran is pretty solid against the run too. I’ll probably fade them both here, with only minor FLEX-posure to Singletary. Raheem Mostert returned last week and looked very good despite being on a snap count. I expect a full complement of usage this week, but with Mike Shanahanigans calling the show, you never really know in SF. I still have him as the best matchup this week for an opposing RB. So, I will have him in the vast majority of my lineups. Unless he reinjures himself before game time. Neither Jerick McKinnon nor Jeff Wilson should receive enough usage to play this week. Things might get even shadier if Tevin Coleman returns this week. Let us all hope he doesn’t.
Stefon Diggs’ first-half usage last week was puzzling. Basically, every WR for Buffalo had to be shaking their head while they watched the first half play out. Yes, the trick play from Cole Beasley to Gabriel Davis was cool, but when Beasley and Diggs see only five total targets in the first half of a game without John Brown. You start scratching your head. WR1s have destroyed San Francisco this season. Diggs should be the only true pivot from Tyreek Hill, and realistically you should just roster both of them. Meanwhile, slot WRs have done next to nothing against SF this year. So start Beasley at your own risk. If Brown is out again, I could see using Davis as a punt WR3, but I feel there are better options. Buffalo has a great CB in Tre’Davious White, the issue is that he refuses to shadow an opponent’s top WR. San Fran can take advantage of this by lining up Deebo Samuel in the slot, especially if Brandon Aiyuk is available to line up outside. This is why you have to give serious consideration to Deebo at WR3, or possibly even FLEX. Aiyuk returning is probably best left on the bench. Kendrick Bourne is always a TD threat, so you can definitely consider him as a punt WR3. I wouldn’t go any deeper though unless Aiyuk is out. In that case, Richie James could be a punt WR3 option as well.
San Francisco has the best defense in the league against opposing TEs. Good luck choosing which Buffalo TE to count on week-to-week anyway. The best you can hope for with any of them is the 1-5-1 line. There is no skin on the bone in that strategy. Jordan Reed played through an illness last week, it may be the first time in history where Reed was on the injured list on a Friday and that he actually played on Sunday. He was a dud last week anyway. That said, he still outperformed Ross Dwelley. As long as Reed remains healthy (and that is always a risk), he will have a good day this week since Buffalo is awful against opposing TEs. If I don’t spend up at the position, Reed is probably the safest cheap option. I believe there may actually be some points scored here., so I don’t love either defense. If I had to choose it would be Buffalo since Mullens is a lesser QB than Allen, but there are better options available.
Dallas Cowboys @ Baltimore Ravens
Andy Dalton has experience facing the Ravens. That is all that he has going for himself this week. If he is lucky, maybe a few of the Ravens’ defenders might still be out due to COVID, but of course, the NFL could just push it back till they are all healthy too. The only QB that I would rank behind Dalton this week is Alex Smith. Lamar Jackson is on track to be able to play in this contest. Assuming he does, he gets the QB2 assignment on this slate. If he is out, then downgrade all of the Ravens’ skill position players. Robert Griffin has value as an alternate against this weak defense, but if he starts, he slides below Josh Allen and Big Ben on my wish list.
Ezekiel Elliott has been an abject bust this season. It clearly isn’t entirely his fault, but why subject yourself to paying his salary to run face-first into this defense. That said, Baltimore has actually given up several solid games to opposing brute-force RBs. So, if the price is palatable, you can consider him at RB2. I’ll pass on Tony Pollard though. J.K. Dobbins is finally getting fed like a true RB1. Dallas is rotten against the run, so consider Dobbins the safest RB1 option on the slate. Mark Ingram has fallen out of favor and Gus Edwards is more of the true backup now. I wouldn’t bother with either of them unless one of the others tests positive for COVID.
Baltimore is one of the best in the league against opposing WRs. Still, recently, the Ravens have been more giving to big-bodied outside WRs. All of the Cowboys’ WRs are bigger, but I will give the edge here to Amari Cooper since he has been the most consistent among them. I could see either him or CeeDee Lamb scoring a TD, but not both of them. Both should also have good but not great final lines. Michael Gallup has been more involved of late, but he remains the third-fiddle in a game against an elite pass defense. That is a no for me. Obviously, if I am not considering him. I am also not considering Cedrick Wilson. Marquise Brown has been more Fresno than Hollywood this season. He has an abysmal 6-55-1 line total over the last four weeks. Yuck. If this wasn’t Dallas, he wouldn’t even deserve coverage in this article. You can actually grit your team and use him at WR3 this week. It may be the last time all season. Dez Bryant gets the Revenge Game narrative. I feel better about him than Hollywood. Willie Snead has also been reliable for Lamar Jackson. Now he just has to clear COVID protocol. If he does Snead makes a solid WR3 option based on volume. If Snead doesn’t play, I like Dez even more. I’m not ready to count on Devin Duvernay yet, but he is someone to watch for the future. He might be a better Showdown option.
Mark Andrews tested positive for COVID in Week 12 and missed the game against Pittsburgh. If he is cleared for this contest, he is no worse than TE3 as Dallas can be beaten by the position. That said, Andrews is a type-1 diabetic which could cause issues with the disease. Baltimore lacks any additional depth at the position, so if he is a no-go you can ignore the position here. As for Dallas, Dalton Schultz is everything that we expected Blake Jarwin to be. Schultz ranks fifth among TEs in receptions and 13th in receiving yards. He only has three scores, but with the WRs being strangled this week, he is in a good position to score here. Baltimore is middle-of-the-pack at best against TEs, making Schultz the true safest option in Dallas’ passing game this week. Baltimore’s defense (even if they are short-handed by COVID) versus Andy Dalton is juicy. KC and Pittsburgh are the only two matchups I feel stronger about. Dallas’ defense should be avoided unless Lamar Jackson is out. Then, Dallas can be avoided as anything but a contrarian play.
The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups
At DK: $6.4K for Kirk Cousins. $6.7K for Miles Sanders. $5.5K for David Montgomery. $7.6K for A.J. Brown. $6.9K for Justin Jefferson. $3.8K for Golden Tate. $4.3K for Dallas Goedert. $4.4K for Frank Gore at FLEX. $4.4K for the Dolphins’ defense.
At FD: $7.3K for Cousins. $7.2K for Sanders. $6.2K for Montgomery. $8.2K for Brown. $7.7K for Jefferson. $7.2K for Michael Thomas. $5K for Kyle Rudolph. $6.1K for Wayne Gallman at FLEX. $4.9K for the Dolphins’ defense.
At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Cousins, Patrick Mahomes at SF, Dalvin Cook, Sanders, Tyreek Hill, Jefferson, Tate, Rudolph, and Gore at FLEX.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | $7,700 | $9,000 |
| Kyler Murray | $7,600 | $8,700 |
| Deshaun Watson | $7,500 | $8,200 |
| Justin Herbert | $6,900 | $7,900 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $6,800 | $8,500 |
| Kirk Cousins | $6,400 | $7,300 |
| Taysom Hill | $6,300 | $7,700 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $6,200 | $7,800 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | $6,000 | $7,400 |
| Philip Rivers | $5,900 | $7,000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | $5,900 | $6,700 |
| Cam Newton | $5,800 | $7,500 |
| Derek Carr | $5,800 | $7,200 |
| Jared Goff | $5,800 | $7,200 |
| Matthew Stafford | $5,700 | $6,800 |
| Gardner Minshew | $5,600 | $7,000 |
| Matt Ryan | $5,600 | $7,400 |
| Daniel Jones | $5,500 | $7,100 |
| Carson Wentz | $5,400 | $7,300 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | $5,400 | $6,900 |
| Nick Foles | $5,400 | $6,900 |
| Baker Mayfield | $5,300 | $7,100 |
| Jalen Hurts | $5,300 | $6,900 |
| Sam Darnold | $5,000 | $6,500 |
| Brandon Allen | $4,800 | $6,000 |
| Colt McCoy | $4,800 | $6,500 |
| Mike Glennon | $4,800 | $6,800 |
| Ryan Finley | $4,800 | $6,300 |
| Jacoby Brissett | $4,400 | $6,000 |
Quarterback
Weekly strategy – Kirk Cousins is the safest play among the higher-priced QBs. I never thought that I would write that line. You can also use Russell Wilson, but his price is decisively higher. I like Ryan Tannehill as my pivot play here. I could also see using Ryan Fitzpatrick if Miami gives him another start. As for punt options, I will consider whoever starts for the Giants, Mitchell Trubisky, and Baker Mayfield. You can also take a risk with Sam Darnold. I wouldn’t go overboard on that play though.
Fantasy Four Pack
Russell Wilson, Seahawks vs. NYG ($7700 DK, $9000 FD)
Russell Wilson is always a threat to go crazy and throw for 400-4. The Giants’ pass defense is strong enough to give Wilson some fits, but they cannot stop both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. They also cannot stop the run. This may actually hurt Wilson’s total output this week as he won’t have to throw the ball as much with Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde rumbling over the opposition. 275-2 is always Wilson’s floor. I’d be a little concerned about that $9K FD price, but his DK salary isn’t horrible.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. PHI ($6800 DK, $8500 FD)
Despite DK Metcalf eating Darius Slay for dinner last week, the Philly pass defense remains on the above side of average. Slay has been pretty damn elite every game until the last one. Either way, this won’t be a smash game for Aaron Rodgers, but it will be a decent game. Much like Wilson, Rodgers has a pretty high floor. This means that his DK salary is always in 3X territory. However, just like Wilson, his FD price is probably a shade high this week. He still is good for 250-2+.
Kirk Cousins, Vikings vs. JAC ($6400 DK, $7300 FD)
Among the higher-priced quarterbacks, Kirk Cousins is the most expensive option that I feel confident will reach 3X value. Atlanta is the only team to allow more total TDs to the quarterback position than the Jaguars. Cousins isn’t a real threat for a rushing TD, but Jacksonville also has allowed the second-most passing TDs to the position. That sets up nicely for Cousins, who has the second-most passing TDs over the last four weeks.
Ryan Tannehill, Titans vs. CLE ($6200 DK, $7800 FD)
Ryan Tannehill gets to lock horns with Cleveland in what should be a shootout. They have allowed the sixth-most passing TDs this season. Part of that is because their defense is better against the run than the pass. Tennessee will attempt to topple that trend with Derrick Henry, but there will be yardage for Tannehill too. I especially like him paired with A.J. Brown as Cleveland has really struggled with WR1s.
DFS Sleepers
Baker Mayfield, Browns @ TEN ($5300 DK, $7100 FD)
As I mentioned right above, this should be a shootout. Tennessee is equally bad against the run and the pass. The Titans have actually allowed more passing TDs than the Browns. Baker Mayfield was ice cold for a few weeks (thanks to having a couple of bad weather games and no reliable WRs), but he finally remembered that he had Jarvis Landry to throw to last week. Expect more of the same this week.
Colt McCoy, Giants @ SEA ($4800 DK, $6500 FD)
This play of course is based on Daniel Jones missing the game due to his injury from last week. If Jones plays, I like him as well, but he is not as cheap. Seattle has allowed nearly 400 more passing yards than the next closest team. They also have given up 25 total QB scores. Colt McCoy has been serviceable in his limited action the last few seasons but he has a lot of weapons to choose from. I especially like pairing him with Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate. I also do not like Evan Engram as a pairing this week.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | $9,500 | $10,500 |
| Derrick Henry | $9,200 | $10,000 |
| Nick Chubb | $7,700 | $8,700 |
| Josh Jacobs | $7,400 | $7,800 |
| James Robinson | $7,300 | $7,800 |
| Aaron Jones | $7,200 | $8,400 |
| Austin Ekeler | $7,100 | $7,000 |
| Alvin Kamara | $7,000 | $7,500 |
| Miles Sanders | $6,700 | $7,200 |
| D’Andre Swift | $6,500 | $6,800 |
| Chris Carson | $6,300 | $8,000 |
| Boston Scott | $6,000 | $5,700 |
| Latavius Murray | $5,900 | $5,800 |
| Myles Gaskin | $5,900 | $5,500 |
| Duke Johnson | $5,800 | $6,000 |
| Jonathan Taylor | $5,700 | $6,400 |
| Kenyan Drake | $5,700 | $6,600 |
| Wayne Gallman | $5,600 | $6,100 |
| David Montgomery | $5,500 | $6,200 |
| Devontae Booker | $5,500 | $6,000 |
| Kareem Hunt | $5,400 | $6,300 |
| Carlos Hyde | $5,300 | $5,700 |
| Nyheim Hines | $5,300 | $6,400 |
| Damien Harris | $5,200 | $5,900 |
| Giovani Bernard | $5,200 | $5,800 |
| James White | $5,000 | $5,700 |
| Adrian Peterson | $4,900 | $5,600 |
| Chase Edmonds | $4,900 | $5,500 |
| Brian Hill | $4,800 | $5,800 |
| Ito Smith | $4,700 | $5,500 |
| Cam Akers | $4,500 | $5,600 |
| Frank Gore | $4,400 | $5,300 |
| Matt Breida | $4,400 | $5,300 |
| Darrell Henderson | $4,300 | $5,600 |
| Dwayne Washington | $4,000 | $4,500 |
| Jalen Richard | $4,000 | $4,500 |
| Sony Michel | $4,000 | $5,300 |
Running Back
Weekly strategy – Derrick Henry joins Dalvin Cook at the $10K+ club on FD. Both are still great plays. If you can use one of them, please do. I am looking forward to spending up at WR this week, so I will likely pivot down to Nick Chubb or Austin Ekeler, both of whom are much cheaper. Either way, roster one of those four at RB1. Miles Sanders and Chris Carson are also cheaper considerations at RB1 or RB2 if you choose to pay up for RBs this week. I love Jonathan Taylor and David Montgomery as additional RB2 options. Myles Gaskin is also in play (if he returns from his injury). If Gaskin doesn’t play Matt Breida and Dwayne Washington could be decent punt options. They could also be used at FLEX. That said, I doubt I won’t use Frank Gore at FLEX or one of the Raiders if Josh Jacobs is out.
Fantasy Four Pack
Dalvin Cook, Vikings @ JAC ($9500 DK, $10500 FD)
In this matchup, I wouldn’t be opposed to stacking Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, a WR, and a TE. That would be putting a lot of trust in the Vikings’ offense, but more importantly, it would be showing a lot of trust in the ineptitude of Jacksonville. I am a little concerned about the price on FD since Cook did have a minor injury last week. When Minnesota gets far enough ahead, we might see a larger share of Alexander Mattison than Cook’s owners might prefer.
Derrick Henry, Titans vs. CLE ($9200 DK, $10000 FD)
I love both of the QBs in this contest and I love both of the RB1s as well. Nick Chubb is a lot cheaper, but he also has to share touches with Kareem Hunt. Derrick Henry doesn’t share with anyone. Cleveland is considerably better against the run than the pass, but Henry has proved the last couple of weeks that he is matchup-proof. Just don’t expect three TDs here.
Nick Chubb, Browns @ TEN ($7700 DK, $8700 FD)
Just play everyone in this game that lines up behind the line of scrimmage. You can also consider A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, Austin Hooper, and Jarvis Landry, among the players that line up on the line of scrimmage. Nick Chubb is a preferred play for me instead of Henry because he is cheaper.
Austin Ekeler, Chargers vs. NE ($7100 DK, $7000 FD)
New England has been hit-or-miss against opposing RBs this season. They also have an elite pass defense. If I was the Chargers, my strategy this week would be to limit Justin Herbert’s downfield pass attempts and work more with the short-passing game to Austin Ekeler and Hunter Henry. Ekeler did not rusty at all last week, and he had an ok game on the ground and an absurdly great one through the air. Even the best WRs don’t garner 16 targets very often. It would behoove the Chargers to repeat that game plan here.
DFS Sleepers
David Montgomery, Bears vs. DET ($5500 DK, $6200 FD)
David Montgomery proved last week that he could be a valuable RB1 when facing a subpar defense. His usage in the passing game only boosts his value. The presence of Mitchell Trubisky is probably best for him too, as Trubisky’s lack of pocket presence increases the likelihood of dump-off passes. Detroit is rotten against the run having allowed a league-worst 21 total RB scores. This sets up for a perfect storm for David this week as he should top 100 yards on the ground, post 6-40 through the air, and score at least once.
Frank Gore, Jets vs. LV ($4400 DK, $5300 FD)
Frank Gore still has some life in those 57-year-old legs. He didn’t score but he carried the ball 18 times for 74 yards and even added three receptions. If I didn’t know better, I’d guess he was only 47 years old. What’s that? He is only 37? Wow, he’s just a spring chicken. No wonder, he did so well. Las Vegas has allowed the third-most total TDs to opposing RBs. So, perhaps Gore gets into the end zone this week as well. At this price, he will be my favorite FLEX play.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | $9,000 | $9,500 |
| DK Metcalf | $8,200 | $8,500 |
| Keenan Allen | $8,100 | $8,100 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $7,800 | $8,000 |
| A.J. Brown | $7,600 | $8,200 |
| Tyler Lockett | $7,400 | $7,900 |
| Adam Thielen | $7,300 | $7,800 |
| Calvin Ridley | $7,200 | $8,400 |
| Michael Thomas | $7,000 | $7,200 |
| Justin Jefferson | $6,900 | $7,700 |
| Allen Robinson | $6,700 | $6,900 |
| Julio Jones | $6,600 | $8,000 |
| DeVante Parker | $6,400 | $6,800 |
| Jarvis Landry | $6,200 | $6,000 |
| Cooper Kupp | $6,100 | $6,600 |
| Kenny Golladay | $6,000 | $7,000 |
| Robert Woods | $5,900 | $7,100 |
| Marvin Jones | $5,700 | $6,000 |
| Brandin Cooks | $5,600 | $6,500 |
| Jakobi Meyers | $5,500 | $5,900 |
| DJ Chark | $5,400 | $6,300 |
| Sterling Shepard | $5,300 | $5,600 |
| Christian Kirk | $5,200 | $5,800 |
| Nelson Agholor | $5,200 | $5,400 |
| Travis Fulgham | $5,200 | $6,300 |
| Corey Davis | $5,100 | $6,100 |
| Jamison Crowder | $5,100 | $6,200 |
| Allen Lazard | $5,000 | $5,600 |
| Michael Pittman | $4,900 | $5,600 |
| Mike Williams | $4,800 | $5,800 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $4,700 | $5,300 |
| Tyler Boyd | $4,700 | $6,600 |
| Darius Slayton | $4,600 | $5,700 |
| Tee Higgins | $4,600 | $6,400 |
| Henry Ruggs | $4,500 | $5,400 |
| Jalen Reagor | $4,500 | $5,500 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $4,400 | $5,700 |
| Hunter Renfrow | $4,300 | $5,400 |
| T.Y. Hilton | $4,300 | $5,600 |
| Josh Reynolds | $4,200 | $5,500 |
| Denzel Mims | $4,100 | $5,500 |
| Rashard Higgins | $4,000 | $5,400 |
| Breshad Perriman | $3,900 | $5,900 |
| Damiere Byrd | $3,900 | $5,300 |
| Golden Tate | $3,800 | $5,200 |
| Keelan Cole | $3,800 | $5,300 |
| Danny Amendola | $3,700 | $5,000 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | $3,600 | $5,000 |
| Laviska Shenault | $3,600 | $5,200 |
| Jakeem Grant | $3,500 | $4,800 |
| Keke Coutee | $3,500 | $4,800 |
| Marvin Hall | $3,500 | $4,900 |
| Zach Pascal | $3,500 | $4,800 |
| Darnell Mooney | $3,400 | $5,100 |
| David Moore | $3,400 | $5,000 |
| Collin Johnson | $3,300 | $5,000 |
| A.J. Green | $3,100 | $5,200 |
| Anthony Miller | $3,100 | $4,900 |
| Mohamed Sanu | $3,000 | $4,900 |
Wide Receiver
Weekly strategy – I’m concerned about whichever WR lines up opposite James Bradberry in the SEA-NYG game. That said, big-bodied WRs have had more success against New York recently, so consider DK Metcalf the play unless the shadow coverage of Metcalf is announced prior to game time. If Bradberry is on Lockett as I expect, Metcalf is a solid WR1 option. Otherwise, the safer options would be A.J. Brown, one of the Vikings, or Michael Thomas. I have three favorites for WR2, led by Allen Robinson. He should be in every lineup as either WR1 or WR2. The other two that I like are Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker. There are a ton of options for WR3. I’m leaning Sterling Shepard, but I’ll take any Giants, Colts, Raiders, or Jets’ WR. It might be chasing points, but Collin Johnson makes a sneaky punt play as do both Darnell Mooney and Anthony Miller if you decide to fade Allen Robinson.
Fantasy Four Pack
A.J. Brown, Titans vs. CLE ($7600 DK, $8200 FD)
Similar larger-bodied WRs such as Collin Johnson, Will Fuller, Dontrelle Inman, Tyler Boyd, and Chase Claypool have all had success against Cleveland this season. Meanwhile, A.J. Brown has scored in seven of the eight games since his return from injury. This is despite facing some elite-level defenses such as Baltimore, Pittsburgh, The Bills, The Bears, and Indy twice. Cleveland has a solid run defense, but their pass defense pales in comparison to those listed above.
Adam Thielen, Vikings vs. JAC ($7300 DK, $7800 FD)
Adam Thielen returns from his COVID hiatus to face a Jacksonville defense that is allowing the sixth-most yardage to opposing WRs. I love both Thielen and Justin Jefferson to have huge games. Each will approach 100 yards and score. I wouldn’t be surprised if Thielen scores twice.
Allen Robinson, Bears vs. DET ($6700 DK, $6900 FD)
Mitchell Trubisky has averaged three passing TDs in his last four games against Detroit. In these games, Allen Robinson has scored three TDs and averaged 6-95. If you decide to get cute and not use ARob, please get exposure to this game thru Darnell Mooney or Anthony Miller.
Michael Thomas, Saints @ ATL ($7000 DK, $7200 FD)
This is all about the matchup. Michael Thomas has only scored three career TDs against Atlanta but he has averaged 8-98 over nine career meetings. The Taysom Hill dynamic may limit Thomas’ overall value, but Hill is at least targeting him (and only him). Only one team has allowed more yardage to opposing WRs, so fire up Thomas at this reduced price.
DFS Sleepers
Sterling Shepard, Giants @ SEA ($5300 DK, $5600 FD)
Sterling Shepard led the Giants’ receiving corps last week. When Colt McCoy took over, Shepard had half of Colt’s completed passes and 40% of Colt’s targets. Seattle has allowed a league-worst 220 receiving yards per game to opposing WRs. Those yards will go to someone, my money is on Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate.
Michael Pittman, Colts @ HOU ($4900 DK, $5600 FD)
The Texans had allowed the league’s third-most WR scores before losing their top CB to a PED suspension. Michael Pittman busted last week, but he was still targeted nine times, so the Colts intend to get him the ball. Similar big WRs have destroyed Houston this year. Without Roby to cover him, Pittman should blow up as well.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | $6,100 | $7,000 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $5,000 | $6,100 |
| Evan Engram | $4,900 | $6,000 |
| Hunter Henry | $4,800 | $6,000 |
| Dallas Goedert | $4,300 | $6,200 |
| Mike Gesicki | $4,200 | $5,700 |
| Jonnu Smith | $4,100 | $5,700 |
| Hayden Hurst | $4,000 | $5,600 |
| Zach Ertz | $3,900 | $5,700 |
| Austin Hooper | $3,800 | $5,300 |
| Jared Cook | $3,700 | $5,500 |
| Robert Tonyan | $3,700 | $5,900 |
| Jimmy Graham | $3,600 | $5,400 |
| Trey Burton | $3,500 | $5,500 |
| Kyle Rudolph | $3,400 | $5,000 |
| Tyler Higbee | $3,400 | $5,100 |
| Will Dissly | $3,300 | $4,500 |
| Gerald Everett | $3,200 | $4,800 |
| Irv Smith | $3,200 | $4,900 |
| Jacob Hollister | $3,000 | $4,900 |
| Tyler Eifert | $3,000 | $4,700 |
| Drew Sample | $2,900 | $4,500 |
| Jordan Akins | $2,900 | $5,200 |
| Darren Fells | $2,700 | $4,800 |
Tight End
Weekly strategy – Darren Waller has a great spot here, but his price tag is considerably higher than everyone else. I’m spending a lot at WR, so I will probably look further down the money ladder for my TE. T.J. Hockenson and Dallas Goedert are the next best options. The pivots would be Mike Gesicki or Jonnu Smith. I like both Robert Tonyan and Trey Burton on DK, but their FD prices seem a tad high. My favorite play outside of Hockenson is Kyle Rudolph. If Irv Smith misses another week, bump Rudolph up even higher. Smith could also be a punt option, as could Jordan Akins as the new #2 target for Deshaun Watson.
Fantasy Four Pack
Darren Waller, Raiders @ NYJ ($6100 DK, $7000 FD)
The Jets have allowed a league-worst nine TE scores. This includes three in the last two weeks. Every quality TE to face them has posted a big game and even some mediocre TEs were goal-line active against them. Darren Waller trails only Travis Kelce in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. Plus, he is fifth in TE scores. So, if you can afford to use him please do. I’d even consider the stack with Derek Carr and one of his WRs.
T.J. Hockenson, Lions @ CHI ($5000 DK, $6100 FD)
T.J. Hockenson has only one game this season where he has failed to top 50 receiving yards or score. Since Week 8, Hockenson ranks second at the position in targets and receiving yards. Meanwhile, Chicago has allowed the fourth-most TE touchdowns and the fourth-most TE receptions. They have also given up the sixth-most yards to the position. Last week, Green Bay’s TEs lambasted them to the tune of 8-88-2 and in Week 1, T.J. posted 5-56-1 against them.
Dallas Goedert, Eagles @ GB ($4300 DK, $6200 FD)
Zach Ertz may finally return this week. That should help the entirety of the Philly offense. It also may take a few looks away from Dallas Goedert. Still, in Weeks 1 and 2, when both were healthy, Dallas posted 12-131-1 on 17 targets. So Ertz’s presence doesn’t mean that we will lose Goedert. Plus, it is no guarantee that Ertz returns this week. Green Bay has been pretty solid against the position, but Indy scored twice against them with their TEs two weeks ago. Hopefully, Carson Wentz watched the footage of his former OC, Frank Reich’s offense against the pack. If so, we could see Wentz continue to pepper Dallas.
Hunter Henry, Chargers vs. NE ($4800 DK, $6000 FD)
New England is elite against TEs…or so it would appear. The few high-end TEs they have faced have produced solid lines (albeit scoreless). The reason their numbers look so great, however, is that they have faced lead TEs like Dan Arnold, Chris Herndon, Tyler Kroft, Albert Okwuegbunum, and old man Greg Olsen in half of their games. With Keenan Allen likely being shadowed, Justin Herbert will have to look towards his RBs and TEs. It won’t be a first, since Henry has six or more targets in ten games this year.
DFS Sleepers
Kyle Rudolph, Vikings vs. JAC ($3400 DK, $5000 FD) No team has allowed more TE touchdowns than Jacksonville. This includes allowing at least one score in seven different games. Meanwhile, Kyle Rudolph has the eighth-most receiving yards among TEs since Week 6. If Irv Smith misses another game, boost Kyle Rudolph even further. That said, even if Irv plays I like Kyle. In fact, I like both of them then.
Jordan Akins, Texans vs. IND ($2900 DK, $5200 FD) Someone will have to take on the 39% of Deshaun Watson’s targets vacated over the last three weeks by the suspension of Will Fuller, the injury to Randall Cobb, and the release of Kenny Stills. Keke Coutee will certainly get a boost as the new starter opposite Brandin Cooks, but Jordan Akins actually ranks second in targets, receptions, and receiving yards among the remaining skill position players, despite missing three games. Indy is very good on defense but at only $2.9K on DK, a touchdown alone equals nearly 3X.
[lawrence-newsletter]