Tyron Woodley (19-4-1 MMA, 9-3-1 UFC)
vs. Leon Edwards (18-3 MMA, 10-2 UFC)
Why it could happen: Considering that this matchup was already booked to headline a card on ESPN+, it’s easy to make a case to re-book [autotag]Tyron Woodley[/auttotag] vs. [autotag]Leon Edwards[/autotag]. Although I hate title contender bookings that can sometimes feel like they only apply to one-half of the matchup, this one totally makes sense given the potential stakes.
For Woodley, if he does want to get back into immediate title contention, taking on and beating one of the most deserving contenders in the division is a great way to do it. And for Edwards, it allows the proverbial dark horse to perhaps finally make that transition to more of a household name outside of hardcore circles.
Predicted line: Edwards -170, Woodley +130
Thoughts on the fight: Though I suspect that more money will come in on the favorite by fight time, I agree with the initial opening lines on this matchup, as I made my fantasy line similar.
If you look at the only two losses in Edwards’ UFC career, they came to deceptively durable, headstrong grapplers. Between his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and collegiate wrestling credentials, Woodley is even more accoladed than said opposition, but I doubt any of that will matter because Woodley – sans his Strikeforce career or finish of Darren Till – has primarily used his grappling for defensive purposes.
So basically, unless Woodley dusts off his offensive wrestling and addresses his pacing and pressure precautions, I believe he’ll have to win this fight on the feet. The former champ has recently camped in Thailand in an effort to improve his striking, but I’m just not sure of how much of a different fighter we will see at nearly 38.
Hopefully, for Woodley’s sake, we see him return to his leg kick sensibilities given what we saw Rafael dos Anjos do to Edwards in the middle rounds; but I don’t know how likely that is considering that Woodley hasn’t thrown more than nine leg kicks per fight in the past seven years. And though Woodley is technically undefeated against southpaws (6-0 against UFC-level lefties), I’m not sure he can dictate striking exchanges with the speed and savvy of Edwards for 25 minutes, as I suspect it’s KO or bust for the American.
Early pick: Edwards by unanimous decision
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