Jon Jones vs. Jan Blachowicz
Why it could happen: Aside from the on-camera moment that [autotag]Jan Blachowicz[/autotag] and [autotag]Jon Jones[/autotag] shared post the Polish fighter knocking out Corey Anderson earlier this year, it’s hard to hate on fresh matchmaking.
Sure, Jones (26-1 MMA, 20-1 UFC) vs. Blachowicz (26-8 MMA, 9-5 UFC) isn’t the sexiest fight on paper, but I’m not the biggest fan of immediate rematches for the title (in regards to the other names on the proverbial table), especially when we’re talking about younger fighters who reside in more shallow divisions.
From his not-so-veiled threats on social media to the doubling down of his stance that he stated earlier this month, Blachowicz – who has won seven of his past eight fights – seems to understand that now is his best chance to cut to the front of the contender’s queue. It’s also not hard to see Jones and/or his management as seeing this as a solid opportunity to reestablish both dominance and confidence after the champion’s last outing at UFC 247.
Predicted line: Jones -480, Blachowicz +360
Thoughts on the fight: Although the predicted spread above could be a bit wider (as I’m sure inflation will raise betting lines well above sea level regardless of the opener), I suspect that this fight plays out a lot closer than many would believe.
Not only is Jones coming off of a close and competitive war that many saw go against him, but he will also be coming off yet another disturbing incident outside of the cage, as I wouldn’t blame anyone for questioning where Jones’ head may be coming out of self-quarantine for a hypothetical fight.
Add in the fact that Blachowicz has been underrated throughout the majority of his UFC tenure (coming in as the underdog in eight of his past 10 fights), and I think that the Polish fighter can stymie the stylings of Jones. Blachowicz has made crucial improvements to both his wrestling and cardio in recent years, and carries heavy body and low kicks that could certainly offer hurdles for the reigning champ to clear.
Still, unless Blachowicz can either catch Jones with his uppercut-hook return or damage his calf badly off of a low kick, then I see Jones winning this fight. I don’t suspect it will be a pretty affair, which likely means that we’ll see Blachowicz receive little credit while Jones gets heaps of criticism.
Early pick: Jones by unanimous decision
[vertical-gallery id=391887]
[vertical-gallery id=462500]