It’s a legitimately fair question to ask: are the Houston Astros hitters going to take a step back in 2020 because of the reaction from fans on the 81 games they’ll play on the road? Will they do worse if there’s no sign-stealing in place (if that was indeed a thing in 2019, something Major League Baseball didn’t find in its report)?
For fantasy baseball owners, that’s a concern. Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve and George Springer are all top-50 choices, and Michael Brantley and Carlos Correa are arguably in the top 100. If you believe all the boos, media attention and screams of “CURVEBALL!” will distract them, then you may avoid them at their current high ADPs.
Some guy in the crowd goes “curveball!” and Springer goes down looking on a fastball pic.twitter.com/5WvvLOxAPD
— 2020 Astros Shame Tour (@AsteriskTour) March 3, 2020
But is that just a fallacy?
I think so.
Let’s start with some hard numbers. Hat tip to the Washington Post, which did a breakdown of home/road splits for Bregman, Altuve, Alvarez, Springer and Correa. The thought is that if those players were indeed benefiting from knowing what pitch was coming at home, they would struggle on the road over the past three seasons.
The Post’s Neil Greenberg found that nearly all of the stars’ numbers were for real, and in some cases, better on the road. It’s a reminder the Astros boast one of the Majors’ best lineups regardless of trash-can banging.
As for the concerns of distraction? I’m not buying it. Most professional athletes can tune out the crowd — which of course will be much larger than the ones they’re seeing in Spring Training — which is why they make the kind of money they’re paid. Or, hey, maybe they embrace being the heels and it helps them mentally in the day to day grind on the road.
Whatever the case may be, don’t discount the Astros hitters in your draft. If anything, buy low if you see opportunities to do so.
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