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The Northern Illinois Huskies (7-5) and Fresno State Bulldogs (6-6) meet Monday in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Kickoff from Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho, is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Northern Illinois closed the season strong, winning 3 of its last 4 games, including a 24-16 win over the Central Michigan Chippewas in its regular-season finale Nov. 30. However, the Huskies failed to cover as 13.5-point home favorites with the Under (40.5) hitting against CMU.
NIU posted one of the biggest upsets of the season when it beat then-No. 7 Notre Dame 16-14 in South Bend Sept. 7. The Huskies were 28-point underdogs against the Fighting Irish, who are now ranked No. 3 an find themselves in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.
The Huskies tied for sixth in the MAC with a 4-4 record. While their offense averaged just 24.3 points per game (PPG), the defense stood out, ranking 15th in the country in points allowed (18.4). DT Devonte O’Malley led the unit with 8 sacks.
Last season, NIU snapped a 7-bowl losing streak, dating back to 2012. That victory was a 21-19 win as a 2.5-point underdog against the Arkansas State Red Wolves in the 2023 Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama.
Fresno State stumbled to the finish line this season, losing 3 of its last 4 games, including a 20-13 defeat to the UCLA Bruins Nov. 30. Despite the loss, the Bulldogs covered as 7.5-point road underdogs for their second consecutive cover in a row, while Under (46.5) cashed.
The Bulldogs finished fourth in the Mountain West with a 4-3 record and were average across most statistical categories in the conference. QB Mikey Keene was a bright spot, leading the MWC with a 70.4% completion rate. Unfortunately for Fresno State, he entered the transfer portal and won’t play in the bowl game.
Fresno State has won its last 5 bowl games, dating back to 2017. The Bulldogs claimed a dominant 37-10 victory as 3-point underdogs over the New Mexico State Aggies in the 2023 New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque.
Northern and Fresno have met 5 times with NIU holding a 3-2 advantage. The Bulldogs won the last meeting 40-17 in the 2010 version of this bowl, which was called the Humanitarian Bowl .
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Northern Illinois at Fresno State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Sunday at 6:40 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Northern Illinois -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Fresno State +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Against the spread (ATS): Northern Illinois -3.5 (-115) | Fresno State +3.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 39.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Northern Illinois at Fresno State picks and predictions
Prediction
Northern Illinois 20, Fresno State 13
Moneyline
Northern Illinois (-165) will win, but take the better odds on the spread. However, it’s OK to include the Huskies moneyline in a multi-team parlay.
PASS.
Against the spread
Fresno State enters this bowl game in rough shape. Along with dropping 3 of its last 4 games (as mentioned), WRs Jalen Moss (committed to Arizona State) and Raylen Sharpe (Arkansas) and RB Malik Sherrod joined Keene in the transfer portal. With Keene out, QB Joshua Wood, who had just 5 pass attempts this season, or QB Jayden Mandal (3 pass attempts) will start.
Whoever starts at QB will face a tough challenge against Northern Illinois’ tough defense, which ranked fifth nationally in yards allowed per game (281.0). The Huskies are on a roll, winning 3 of their last 4 by an average of 11.7 points. They’ve also excelled at neutral sites, covering the spread in 4 of their last 5 such games.
Northern Illinois lost some players to the transfer portal, too, including starting QB Ethan Hampton (headed to Illinois). Redshirt freshman QB Josh Holst (47 of 81, 411 passing yards, 0 TD, 1 INT) will make his second start.
NIU has covered in 3 straight postseason games, including last season’s 2-point win vs. Arkansas State. With an top-ranked defense and Fresno State’s lack of momentum and depleted roster, the Huskies are well-positioned for another strong performance.
BET NORTHERN ILLINOIS -3.5 (-115).
Over/Under
It’s rare to see a total this low in college football, but it’s justified. With backup quarterbacks starting and several key players out due to the transfer portal, this game has all the makings of an Under. Plus, Northern Illinois features one of the top defenses in the country.
TAKE UNDER 39.5 (-105) — it’s the smart play.
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