The best time to schedule your fantasy football draft is once the preseason has concluded. By doing this, not only do you avoid the risk of drafting a player who gets injured, there’s usually a much clearer picture of each team’s depth chart.
We’ve previously examined the 2021 fantasy projections of Falcons starters Matt Ryan, Mike Davis, Calvin Ridley, and Russell Gage. Now, we break down rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, and his fantasy outlook for 2021.
There’s nothing really to go off of over when projecting Pitts’ production other than head coach Arthur Smith’s previous usage of tight ends while in Tennessee. That won’t be expected to change now that he’s in Atlanta but it’s always hard to predict a rookie tight end’s success. Plus, Pitts offers a lot of flexibility for scheming and can fit in different areas that typical tight ends cant.
What can we expect
It’s important to remember that Pitts has yet to play a true down in the NFL, and was on the field for just two snaps in the preseason. He’s projected for 851 receiving yards on 107 targets, with 76 receptions and seven touchdowns.
Pro Football Focus pegs Pitts as the fourth-best tight end in fantasy for 2021. His 202.4 projection includes seven touchdowns, the third-highest total in the NFL.
ESPN, on the other hand, values Lions TE T.J. Hockenson slightly more than the Falcons rookie. Pitts earns a more modest 190.5 total points for the season. While ESPN and PFF differ in overall value, they both are in line with season productivity and target share.
Pitts’ most favorable matchups
- Week 1: Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 2 / 13: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Week 5: New York jets
- Week 12: Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 17: Buffalo Bills
Pitts’ least favorable matchups
- Week 9/18: New Orleans Saints
- Week 11: New England Patriots
- Week 15: San Francisco 49ers
- Week 16: Detroit Lions
Final Verdict
The tight end class is top heavy. Passing on one early could put your team in a tough spot later in the draft. Pitts has seen a consistent run of being selected in the fourth round but could go higher based on where you are selecting in the draft order. Just like with Calvin Ridley, Pitts’ true draft spot is more so determined by the flow of the draft and if tight ends are taken earlier than expected. This would expedite his selection into the second or third round.
While Pitts does have tremendous potential, his usage in fantasy could be hindered by two things. First, the Falcons are likely to spread the ball around on offense. And second, Pitts is splitting time with Hayden Hurst — another former first-round pick — which may cut into his target share. Atlanta may have declined Hurst’s option in the offseason, but the fourth-year TE will still get substantial time in Arthur Smith’s offense.
Overall, the upside is there, but there are plenty of roadblocks that could make it tough for Pitts to be a difference-maker as a rookie.
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