Exploring potential Packers playoff scenarios with ESPN’s Playoff Machine

ESPN’s Playoff Machine simulator is way too much fun.

The Green Bay Packers are well on their way to securing a spot in the NFC playoffs with four games left in the 2019 season.

In fact, there’s a good chance the top five teams in the NFC entering Week 14 – the Packers, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings – and the eventual NFC East winner (Dallas Cowboys or Philadelphia Eagles) will make up the six-team field.

The final month is about seeding and determining division winners.

Thousands of scenarios are possible. That’s what makes playing on ESPN’s Playoff Machine so much fun.

Here are a few especially interesting possibilities:

No. 1 seed (and Vikings miss playoffs)

In this scenario, the Packers win a tiebreaker with the Saints based on conference record and earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a 13-3 record. It required four wins from the Packers, two losses each from the Seahawks and 49ers and a conference loss from the Saints. Another intriguing part of this scenario: The Vikings finished 11-5 but missed the playoffs after the Rams finished the year with four straight wins.

Based on win percentage

If all remaining games are simulated based on win percentage (with tiebreakers given to home team), this is how it’d shake out. The Packers would finish 13-3 but still miss out on a first-round bye, based on the Seahawks and Saints both winning out and getting to 14-2. It’s not likely, but it does highlight an increasingly likely first-round matchup: NFC North winner vs. NFC North runner up. In this scenario, the Packers win the North and host the Vikings at Lambeau Field in the NFC Wild Card Round. The Week 16 game in Minneapolis could end up determining the location of that first-round game.

First-round bye

There’s a realistic pathway for the Packers to get a first-round bye, as seen above. Here’s what needs to happen: Packers win out, 49ers beat Saints in Week 13, Rams beat Seahawks in Week 13, Seahawks beat 49ers in Week 17.  All conceivable results. In this scenario, four teams finish with a 13-3 record, but the Packers get the first-round bye as the No. 2 seed over the Saints based on conference record.

Packers miss playoffs

There is a nightmare scenario available: The Packers can finish 11-5 and still miss the playoffs. How could it happen? The Rams and Vikings would need to win out, and the Packers would have to lose two of their final four games against the NFC (such as Bears and Vikings, or Vikings and Lions). It’s unlikely, especially considering the Rams’ schedule, but the Packers losing two of the final four games isn’t completely unrealistic.

NFC North mayhem

Simulating the remaining games based on defensive rank creates mayhem in the NFC North. In this scenario, the Bears win out and finish 10-6, while the Packers and Vikings both limp to the finish line and also finish 10-6. The Bears win the division via head-to-head win percentage among the three teams, the Packers get in as the No. 6 seed and the Vikings miss the playoffs altogether.