When looking at quarterback efficiency numbers and numbers overall, Matthew Stafford is having a solid start to the season for the Los Angeles Rams. The one efficiency statistic that Stafford is near the bottom of the league in is CPOE (completion percentage over expected).
So why is that?
Stafford is 10th among quarterbacks in EPA per play (0.088) and is pushing the ball down the field as he is seventh in air yards per attempt (8.8), according to rbsdm.com. Meanwhile, his CPOE is at -4 through the first six weeks, putting him at 30th among 33 qualified quarterbacks.
The only three quarterbacks with a worse CPOE than Stafford are Anthony Richardson, Jordan Love, and Kenny Pickett. On the other hand, Stafford is eighth in expected completion percentage.
The experienced signal-caller is listed as completing 64.7% of his passes, while his expected completion percentage sits at 68.6%. While Stafford is always going to make aggressive throws that can result in incomplete passes, drops have been an issue for the Rams.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Rams have a total of 15 drops from their skill players. Puka Nacua leads the NFL with six drops, Tyler Higbee and Kyren Williams have three drops apiece, Tutu Atwell has two drops, and Van Jefferson recorded one drop before being traded to the Atlanta Falcons.
Even though Nacua has proved to be a fantastic option for Stafford early in his rookie season, he’ll need to improve on limiting drops moving forward. If you were to remove just Nacua’s drops, Stafford’s completion percentage increases a decent bit.
With injuries to Williams and Ronnie Rivers, the Rams could ask Stafford to air the ball out more in the coming weeks. And if the skill players can tone down the drops, Stafford’s CPOE should tilt the other way with how he’s performing.