The Los Angeles Rams couldn’t have had an easier path to clinching a playoff berth in Week 15, needing to only tie or beat the 0-13 New York Jets. But as we all know, they failed to do that, losing 23-20 at home on Sunday afternoon.
They also could’ve gotten in with a tie in the Bears-Vikings game, but Chicago wound up winning that one 33-27 to keep its playoff hopes alive at 7-7.
As a result, the Rams still have not clinched a playoff berth yet. That seems impossible considering they’re 9-5, two games ahead of the Bears – who they already beat this season – with two games remaining.
There’s only one miraculous way the Rams can miss the playoffs, and it involves a very specific set of results in the final two weeks of the season from the Cardinals, Buccaneers and Bears. Here’s the scenario where Los Angeles finishes 9-7 and misses the postseason, with the Bucs, Bears and Cardinals taking the three wild-card spots.
- Rams: Lose vs. Seahawks and Cardinals
- Cardinals: Lose vs. 49ers, win vs. Rams
- Buccaneers: Win at least 1 game vs. Lions and Falcons
- Bears: Win vs. Jaguars, win vs. Packers
In that scenario, the Rams, Bears and Cardinals would all be tied at 9-7. The first tiebreaker would be between the Rams and Cardinals, based on win percentage in division games. If the Rams lose out, they will finish 2-4 in the NFC West, with Arizona going 3-3 by splitting its last two games.
So with Arizona winning the tiebreaker against the Rams, the next tiebreaker is decided between the Cardinals and Bears, and is based on win percentage in common games. The No. 6 seed would go to the Bears because they own that tiebreaker over Arizona.
Therefore, the Bucs are the No. 5 seed at 11-5, the Bears would be the No. 6 seed and Arizona would sneak in as the No. 7 seed, just ahead of the Rams.
Is all this likely to happen? Absolutely not. The Rams can clinch a playoff berth simply by beating the Seahawks or Cardinals in the final two weeks. Or, if they just tie in one of those two games. They can also clinch a berth if the Bears lose one of their next two games, or if Arizona wins this week against the 49ers.
It’s all very convoluted and confusing, but there is a single possible scenario where the Rams miss the playoffs. It’s just highly unlikely.
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