Experts project Alabama’s College Football Playoff fate entering Week 12

With Jalen Milroe and Alabama having thrashed LSU, college football writers and pundits see the Crimson Tide as a lock for the Playoff.

Jalen Milroe and the Alabama Crimson Tide have the college football world buzzing after their 45-13 beatdown of the LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge over the weekend.

Alabama moved up two spots to No. 9 in both the US LBM Coaches Poll and AP Top 25 poll after beating LSU. Milroe rushed for 185 yards and four touchdowns on 12 carries and threw for another 109 on 12-of-18 passing in the Tide’s dominant victory.

Alabama improved to 7-2 overall and 4-2 in SEC play. Kalen DeBoer’s team also dramatically improved their hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff as they enter Week 12.

The Crimson Tide were ranked No. 11 in the first CFP rankings release of the 2024 season last week. The updated rankings will be unveiled Tuesday night beginning at 7:30 p.m. CT on ESPN.

In the meantime, here’s what national college football writers and others in the sport’s media universe are saying about the Tide’s Playoff chances — and who they might face if they win out.

Expect Alabama to move up in new CFP rankings

Alabama is certain to move up in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings, and ESPN’s Heather Dinich (subscription required) projects them to climb two spots to No. 9 Tuesday.

Dinich said of Alabama:

“The Tide’s win against LSU should bump them up, but the second loss will continue to hold them back. Alabama’s head-to-head win against Georgia should keep them ahead of the Bulldogs now that they both have identical 7-2 records. Alabama was the committee’s top two-loss team in its first ranking, and the LSU win should further cement that this week. (Warde) Manuel said the committee thought Alabama’s home win against Georgia “was impressive,” along with its win against Missouri. “They’re top 20 in scoring,” Manuel said after the first ranking. “Obviously their defense is always solid, holding teams to less than 20 points per game. Those things impressed the committee.”

 

Experts’ 2024 College Football Playoff projections for Alabama football

Over at CBS Sports, Jerry Palm is riding especially high on Alabama after their win at LSU. So much so that Palm now has the Crimson Tide favored to not only make the College Football Playoff, but to win the SEC Championship Game outright after the Georgia Bulldog’s 28-10 loss to the Ole Miss Rebels over the weekend.

Palm explains his projection this way:

“The loss for Georgia combined with wins by Alabama and Tennessee leave me with Texas finishing first in the SEC regular season and a six-car pileup behind them of teams with two conference losses. I had to dig deep into the tiebreaker to emerge with an opponent for the Longhorns, and that team is the Crimson Tide, who would earn the conference championship berth based on the record of their conference opponents.

“I also project Alabama to win the SEC title game over Texas and earn a 3-seed in the playoff field.”

USA TODAY Sports’ Ehsan Kassim sees Alabama in the Playoff, as an at-large seed with the Texas Longhorns winning the SEC and earning the conference’s automatic bid and first-round bye.

Kassim projected the Crimson Tide as the No. 10 seed and playing at No. 7 seed Penn State in what would be a new chapter in a once familiar series. Alabama and the Nittany Lions have met 15 times, with Alabama beating Penn State in the 1979 Sugar Bowl for the national championship.

Likewise, 247Sports’ Brad Crawford sees Alabama as a No. 10 seed in the Playoff and facing Notre Dame in South Bend. The Fighting Irish are 7-1 and ranked No. 8 after a 52-3 blowout win over Florida State.

Alabama football vs. Indiana Hoosiers a common Playoff projection

Veteran college football writer Andy Stapes forecasts Alabama as the No. 7 seed in the Playoff and hosting the No. 10 seed Indiana Hoosiers in Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Indiana improved to 10-0 Saturday and is ranked No. 5 in the AP Top 25 poll after their 20-15 win over the Michigan Wolverines.

Staples said of Alabama:

“The 42-13 thrashing of LSU in a CFP elimination game served as a reminder that this Alabama team is still loaded even if it doesn’t have the same consistency it showed throughout the Nick Saban era. Jalen Milroe remains one of the nation’s most dangerous QBs.”

Over at The Athletic ($), staff writer Austin Mock sees the same Alabama-Indiana matchup, only with the Crimson Tide as the No. 9 seed and facing the No. 8 seed Hoosiers in Bloomington.

In another No. 9 vs. No. 8 seed projection, Yahoo Sports’ Nick Bromberg sees Alabama playing at Indiana, as well.

Could Alabama play Tennessee in ‘Third Saturday’ College Football Playoff rematch?

The Sporting News’ Bill Bender had an interesting opponent for Alabama in his playoff projections. In Bender’s new forecast, he has Jalen Milroe, Ryan Williams and Jihaad Campbell facing the Tennessee Volunteers in a No. 10 vs. No. 7 seed rematch in Knoxville.

Bender isn’t the only one with that projection. ESPN’s Mark Schlabach ($) also has the Tide taking on the Vols in Knoxville.

Alabama 2024 football schedule

Next up for Alabama are the Mercer Bears from the FCS ranks. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. CT Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The game can be seen on SEC Network+.

Contact/Follow us @RollTideWire on X, and like our page on Facebook for ongoing coverage of Alabama news and notes, plus opinions.