‘I think it’s wide open’
This unique arrangement will be the backdrop for the most unpredictable tournament in modern history.
By abbreviating non-conference play and creating a wide range of total games played across leagues, COVID-19 has made it nearly impossible to forecast which teams are poised to surprise, which are set to disappoint and which are most likely to advance deep into the tournament.
There are a few safer bets: Gonzaga, the tournament’s top overall seed, is attempting to become the first team to go unbeaten since Indiana in 1976. Teams from the Big Ten might be sharpened by playing in the nation’s best conference and hold the advantage of already being in Indianapolis for their conference tournament.
But there will be no early-round advantage for top seeds typically placed in regions closer to home. Outside of Gonzaga, there’s no insight into which mid-major team will make a run at the Final Four and captivate a national audience, such as Loyola-Chicago did in 2018. At any point, a team could be knocked out of contention by COVID-19. Opponents given a free pass into the next round will have the bonus of additional time to prepare, rest and recuperate.
“I think it’s wide open,” Boatright said. “If we’re fortunate enough to get an opportunity to play in the NCAA Tournament, I like our chances to advance and see how much more ball we can play.”
The tournament also will be defined by which blueblood programs failed to make the field. Duke already was firmly on the bubble before this week’s positive test. Kentucky won’t reach postseason play after the program’s first losing finish since the 1989-90 season. Other big-name schools, such as Michigan State and North Carolina, have put together uneven regular seasons and will be outside the top tier of seeds entering tournament play.
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Without being able to rely on historic powers to bolster viewership, the NCAA and broadcast partners CBS and Turner Broadcasting may instead focus coverage on national brands known more for success in other sports, such as Alabama or Ohio State, and highlight Gonzaga’s push for basketball immortality. Georgetown, led by former Hoya and NBA star Patrick Ewing, and Iona, helmed by Hall of Fame coach Rick Pitino, are sure to draw eyeballs.
“I think what will happen is they’ll promote the ones that are there,” said sports media consultant Joe Favorito. “Some people will forget who’s not there. You do have Michigan. You have an amazing story in Gonzaga. You have teams that have come back, frankly with pretty big followings, that haven’t been around for a few years.”
Talk of television ratings and national interest may be premature given the larger question at play: Can the tournament avoid any major setbacks in reaching the finish line? A national champion will be crowned, one way or another. But after a tumultuous regular season, it’s increasingly unlikely the NCAA Tournament will escape unscathed.
“The custom is to think about Selection Sunday on ‘Selection Monday.’ You think about whether you’re selected or not, where you’re seeded and what your site is going to be,” Sankey said. “Think past Selection Sunday. How do you prepare yourself and your team for dealing with this structured environment?”
Get ready for March Madness by registering in advance for USA TODAY Sports’ bracket sweepstakes. In the meantime, mobile users can play USA TODAY Sports’ Couchketball virtual hoops challenge – the interactive basketball game where your skills determine the outcome.
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