The coaching carousel — that period from late November through early January when college football staffs across the country change shape — is one of the more delicious and interesting (and sometimes infuriating) aspects of the college football industry. While some teams are preparing for conference championship games, other teams are preparing for life under a new head coach. You can call the coaching carousel many things, but it is very rarely boring. Some aspects of the carousel are manifestly unfair, but in an entertainment business — college football is certainly that — the carousel offers genuine entertainment, for better or worse.
Maybe — as we sit here in mid-July — there will not be any college football this fall. I still don’t have a firm opinion on whether there will be any football played at all in the remaining months of 2020. I am trying to assume as little as possible.
Yet, the flow of events has brought us far enough along the path for me to conclude that even if games are played this autumn, the coaching carousel won’t spin very much.
This might seem obvious to some; it might be contested by others; ultimately, it seems like a relatively safe call to make.
The real intrigue — if we have a season which is at least nine games in length — concerns any coach who spectacularly face-plants. Those coaches could prove to be so inept that a restless fan base, in the midst of a national moment defined by restlessness throughout the United States, makes it clear that it won’t accept a head coach for another year. In situations when coaches crash and burn, sure, there still might be firings and replacements.
However, in those situations, it might be the case that with university budgets being downsized across the country, schools which fire head coaches won’t be able to hire high-dollar replacements. They might promote popular assistant coaches from within, give those coaches a cut-rate salary for a trial run in 2021, and then consider their long-term plan anew heading into 2022.
In terms of schools firing coaches and hiring elite replacements, I don’t think we’re going to see very much of that even if nine or 10 games are played this fall.
The budgetary angle — and the buyouts on the books for various coaches at their respective employers — is the main reason to think there will be a lack of action on the carousel this November and December. Start there in an attempt to understand why the coaching industry is likely to experience comparatively less turnover if we do play games this autumn.
It’s more than that, though.
There is such a pronounced lack of enthusiasm for this season — due to the pandemic — that wins and losses simply won’t carry the same resonance or impact if we do play football this fall. It doesn’t mean fans won’t eagerly watch games; the larger point is that everyone involved in playing the games (coaches, players, administrators, staffers, media members) is so concerned about public health and safety that the focus has unavoidably moved away from football itself.
We aren’t focused right now on who the Heisman favorite will be, or which coach is on the hot seat, or which team is going to surprise everyone, or any of the other topics we would normally be discussing in mid-July just before the start of a season. Players aren’t thinking about the season so much as they are concerned about their safety. Coaches aren’t thinking about game plans so much as they are wondering how they can manage and coach their players in the midst of a pandemic. Athletic directors aren’t interested in seeing how their coaches perform so much as they are trying to piece together the logistics of plans which can keep players and coaches safe. This is all necessary to focus on pandemic-related issues more than actual football.
From this reality, it is hard to see how the outcomes of games — if games are played — will affect hire-or-fire decisions the way they would in a normal season.
This season is anything but normal… and that’s if we even have one.
The coaching carousel is fun, but don’t expect it to spin a lot in the final weeks of 2020. This year is simply not meant to be fun, and that’s just the way it is.