The Jadeveon Clowney signing will only create more buzz around the Tennessee Titans’ prospects to make a Super Bowl run after their run to the AFC championship last year.
But maybe we should pump the breaks a little. After all, it’s not a given the Titans can recapture their postseason magic from 2019. In fact, it’s far more likely they regress in 2020 amid an equally average regular season.
First, let’s revisit what there is to like about Tennessee.
They retained their two offensive centerpieces: quarterback Ryan Tannehill and running back Derrick Henry. If it were a year ago, it would be wild to think Tannehill could be a centerpiece for a Super Bowl contender. But he was a perfect match for Tennessee’s offense after years of wasting away with the Miami Dolphins. He unlocked the potential of rookie receiver A.J. Brown and tight end Jonnu Smith. All the while, Henry ran through, over and into his opponents while leading the NFL in rushing last year.
The relationship between Tannehill and Henry was a symbiotic one. Henry’s success on the ground made things easier for his quarterback, while Tannehill’s success in the play-action passing game opened up things for his running back.
Another bright spot: Mike Vrabel looks like a coach on the rise. You’ve got to respect his moxie as he out-Belichicked Belichick in the playoffs in 2019. And Vrabel held up his end of the bargain by assembling a defensive unit which did enough to allow the offense to win games by establishing the run (rather than needing to pass the ball after falling behind).
Add an all-world talent like Clowney and the Titans might be in the mix to get back into the AFC Championship … right?
Well, I hate to be that guy, but… wrong. For a lot of reasons, with stiff competition at the top of the AFC being the most obvious one. The Kansas City Chiefs should be just as good as they were last year when they won a Super Bowl. The Baltimore Ravens boast the reigning MVP, Lamar Jackson, who is likely to play better in the playoffs with more experience after tough outing last year. The Indianapolis Colts looked like they were a quarterback away from being legit contenders, so they went out and got Philip Rivers. And then there’s the Patriots. There’s always the Patriots, even if Bill Belichick swapped out Tom Brady with Cam Newton.
The Titans got hot at the right time in 2019 but look to be due for some regression after relying on play-action so heavily in the pass game (play-action pass performance is volatile year-to-year) and feeding Henry a league-leading 303 carries (which could have taken a toll on his body).
As for the long term, their late-season run may have been fool’s gold. The postseason momentum essentially forced the front office to commit big money to Tannehill, the quarterback who got them there. Tennessee also decided to place the franchise tag on Henry before inking him to an extension to keep the offense intact. The Titans made a big financial commitment to the 2019 roster, which is a little scary considering Tannehill’s track record and the track record of just about every high-volume running back in NFL history.
It wouldn’t be the least bit surprising if both Tannehill and Henry are unable to replicate what they did in 2019. We haven’t even mentioned that the architect of the defensive gameplans that helped win the two playoff games, Dean Pees, retired in the offseason, so Vrabel will be taking on added responsibilities in 2020.
The Titans are likely going to be roughly what they were in 2019: a 9-7 team. But they probably won’t get hot in the same way in 2020 — not with the AFC looking even more competitive than it was a year ago.
So as the hype will likely build around Tennessee after the Clowney signing, it’s important to look at this roster with a heavy dose of skepticism.
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