Even though it finished with the most losses of any season in the Dan Mullen era, Florida’s 2020 team was a breakthrough squad in many ways. A fanbase ravenous for elite offense was finally satiated as quarterback Kyle Trask led a record-setting passing game.
The Gators finally got over the Georgia hurdle, beating the Bulldogs for the first time since Kirby Smart’s first season at the helm in 2016, and by virtue of that win, it also won the SEC East for the first time under Mullen. Despite a loss to LSU in the regular-season finale, Florida was one game and six points away from a College Football Playoff berth.
But Trask is gone now. Emory Jones steps into the starting role now, and the offense will probably look a lot different stylistically in 2021. At the same time, Florida turns to many talented yet inexperienced players on defense as it tries to fix what was the team’s Achilles Heel last season.
There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding UF football in 2021, and for that reason, ESPN’s preseason Football Power Index is wary of them. Overall, it comes in at No. 14 and its projected record next season is 8.2-3.9.
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Offensively, the Gators are projected to have a pretty major drop-off, ranking 19th, which is understandable. Even if Jones does well under center, he likely won’t be able to match Trask’s 2020 production through the air, which had them ranking fourth in offensive efficiency per the FPI. UF will likely rely on the run game and the option much more than Mullen’s previous teams have.
However, FPI is much more positive about Florida’s defense heading into 2021. UF ranked just 48th in the final 2020 FPI in defensive efficiency, but its preseason projection comes in at No. 21. The Gators lost a number of starters on defense, but with starters like Mohamoud Diabate, Brenton Cox Jr., Kaiir Elam and Zachary Carter returning, as well as young players who have had positive flashes like Gervon Dexter and Ty’Ron Hopper, this unit has a potential to take a big leap forward next season.
Here’s the full FPI top 25 with projected offensive and defensive rankings for each team.
College Football FPI Rankings
| SCHOOL | FPI RANK | FPI RATING | O-RANK | D-RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 1 | 28.0 | 5 | 2 |
| Oklahoma | 2 | 26.6 | 1 | 15 |
| Clemson | 3 | 23.5 | 8 | 1 |
| Iowa State | 4 | 22.8 | 3 | 7 |
| Ohio State | 5 | 20.5 | 2 | 42 |
| Texas A&M | 6 | 19.7 | 9 | 3 |
| Georgia | 7 | 17.9 | 12 | 4 |
| Mississippi State | 8 | 16.2 | 11 | 6 |
| Oklahoma State | 9 | 15.0 | 17 | 11 |
| Penn State | 10 | 14.9 | 28 | 8 |
| Notre Dame | 11 | 14.5 | 18 | 14 |
| Texas | 12 | 14.2 | 15 | 16 |
| North Carolina | 13 | 13.5 | 6 | 50 |
| Florida | 14 | 13.3 | 19 | 21 |
| Wisconsin | 15 | 13.3 | 47 | 5 |
| Auburn | 16 | 12.9 | 33 | 17 |
| Oregon | 17 | 12.8 | 10 | 19 |
| LSU | 18 | 12.7 | 34 | 18 |
| TCU | 19 | 12.1 | 43 | 9 |
| Miami | 20 | 11.9 | 14 | 32 |
| Texas Tech | 21 | 11.5 | 16 | 29 |
| Ole Miss | 22 | 11.5 | 4 | 83 |
| Iowa | 23 | 11.2 | 68 | 12 |
| West Virginia | 24 | 11.0 | 29 | 27 |
| Indiana | 25 | 11.0 | 60 | 10 |
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