ESPN’s Mike Clay predicts No. 3 seed for Cowboys following 2020 draft

How good are the Cowboys? How difficult is their schedule? An ESPN analyst went about a post-draft handicapping the league, position by position and determined the Cowboys should emerge victorious in the NFC East. Here’s the pseudo-science behind it.

The Dallas Cowboys have been widely heralded as having a great 2020 draft. They augmented a strength with their first pick, getting a third No. 1 receiver type in Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb. They attempted to replace the departed Byron Jones with a press-man corner who they saw as a first-round talent in Trevon Diggs. Other picks addressed several other needs with what is considered talent worth selections higher than where they were eventually plucked.

Following the draft, Dallas went out and got another starting corner in Daryl Worley and a starting-caliber backup QB in Andy Dalton. Combined with a strengthening on their defensive interior with the additions of Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe, the club has done well to answer the majority of their question marks. It’s difficult to fill all holes for a club that was just .500 a year ago, but Dallas seems to have solidified the more important areas of their team. So much so that they have been predicted by ESPN’s Mike Clay to now win the NFC East.

Clay uses his formula, scoring the club position by position and placing those rankings against their schedule to predict points for and points against, and uses that to predict number of wins on the season. Dallas comes in with 10.1 wins, third-best in the NFC behind New Orleans (11.2) and defending-NFC champion San Francisco (10.4).

It gives them more than a one-game margin over 2019 NFC East champion Philadelphia.

ESPN’s Mike Clay 2020 post-draft projections.

Clay actually looks at Dallas as the whole being lesser than the sum of their parts.

When scoring the offense and defense, the Cowboys actually come in as the second-best team overall, with a 2.9 score out of a perfect 4.0. Only the Saints are better at 3.3; but other factors have them finishing with just the league’s sixth-best win total.

Breaking down Clay’s positional rankings adds to the impression of how solid Dallas’ overall roster should be in 2020.

Offense

Their best unit is the wideouts, which scored a 3.9 out of 4.0. The trio of Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and Lamb rank only behind the Buccaneers triple-threat of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and rookie Tyler Johnson (Minnesota).

The Cowboys QB tandem of Dak Prescott and Andy Dalton ranks seventh (3.4), the running back duo of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard comes in fourth (3.6) and the offensive line ranks fourth in the league as well (3.6).

The tight end position weighs Dallas down the most, coming in with the fourth-worst grade in the league at 0.5.

Their overall offensive score of 1.8 (out of 2.0) is third in the league behind New Orleans (2.0) and Kansas City (1.9).

Defense

Dallas’ defense was an issue last season, but it appears they’ve put together a group that has one special group with the others all ranking middle tier. That level of consistency is apparently hard to find across the league. In the day and age where offense is king, the Cowboys strategy of having expensive talent on that side of the ball appears set to pay off.

Linebacker is the standout group for Dallas, with Jaylon Smith, Sean Lee, Joe Thomas and most importantly an expected-to-be-healthy Leighton Vander Esch scoring a 3.9, second only to Seattle’s unit.

The defensive interior (2.1), safety (2.3) and corner (2.1) are all middle of the road. The weakest link on defense is the edge position, where there isn’t any confidence at all beyond DeMarcus Lawrence.

The group scored a 1.9, good for just 18th in the league. Fans are still hopeful the team will look to ink a player such as Everson Griffen to augment their reinstatement hopefuls of Randy Gregory and Aldon Smith.

Overall, Dallas’ defense graded out as a 1.1 (again out of 2.0), just outside of the top 10 at No. 11. Again, this shows that while several other teams have strong units that outpace the Cowboys, few teams are able to trot out a defense without any major deficiencies, which Dallas can.

Strength of Schedule

Finally Clay takes these rankings and applies them to each team’s schedule. Based on these grades, Dallas has the 13th-most difficult schedule overall.

The Cowboys face the NFC West, where all four teams are predicted to have at least a .500 record and the AFC North where three teams are projected to be above the even line. Atlanta and Minnesota are the other non-division clubs on their schedule and the Falcons have a 7.4 win projection.

The Vikings are seen as NFC North champs, but winners of a weak division with just an 8.8 win projection.

The other NFC East teams are predicted to finish in the order of Philadelphia (8.9 win projection), New York (6.4) and Washington (4.1).

Both the Redskins and Giants are predicted to be in the top-10 of the 2021 draft, with Washington having the best shot at the No. 1 overall selection; which will be up for sale if Dwayne Haskins emerges in 2020, or will go to a QB pick if he doesn’t.

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