NFL franchises will spend all offseason looking to piece together the right formula of new parts to add to their existing infrastructure; the hope being that they’ll stumble upon the magic blend of luck, skill and strategy to end the season atop the mountain. The science to winning a championship is an inexact one (with the exception apparently being having a Tom Brady on the roster) and as a result you’ll often see a wide array of preseason opinions on the talent and forecast for each team.
One of the most notable projections for an NFL season is ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), which runs simulations of the season at any point throughout the season and spits out a forecast and a set of power rankings for the entire league.
FPI has not been kind to the Dolphins over the last two seasons — Miami has begun both of the last two years at or near the bottom of the league. But 2021 brings a new season and, in the case of the Dolphins and their FPI forecast, a new expectation.
FPI ranks the Dolphins in their Power Ranking as the 6th best team in the AFC, trailing the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns and New England Patriots. The Dolphins are tied with the projected AFC South winner, the Tennessee Titans.
Should the FPI forecast come into reality, the Dolphins would be due to travel to Buffalo to play the Bills in the Wild Card round of the AFC Playoffs. Every Dolphins fan knows how that trip went in January of this past season. Miami’s aspirations in 2021 certainly include a ticket to the big dance — and if Miami has successfully closed the gap on the Bills in the AFC East, a potential third game between the two would be an exciting proposition.
The Dolphins do have some separation from the fringe playoff contenders in the AFC, too. FPI scores Indianapolis and Pittsburgh at nearly an equal to “average” team. Indianapolis (0.3) and Pittsburgh (0.1) are comfortably off the projection of both Miami and Tennessee (1.2 each). This, of course, is just a projection. It will definitely change. But the fact that these expectations exist for Miami is a good indication of what has the potential to come in 2021.