Mel Tucker’s first year at Michigan State–if it even happens–is looking like it could be a rough one; at least according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).

Michigan State is slotted 67th in the latest preseason FPI rankings. That ranking, combined with their tough schedule, has Michigan State finishing a projected 4-8 in Tucker’s first season. FPI gives the Spartans a 0.0% chance of winning the Big Ten.

ESPN’s FPI also projects the percent chance a team has of winning a specific game. There are only three games on Michigan State’s entire schedule in which FPI gives them a better than 50% chance of winning: vs. Toledo, vs. Miami, and vs. Rutgers.

Let’s see what FPI has to say about each Michigan State opponent in 2020.

Week 1 vs. Northwestern – 26.2%

Gone are the Friday night specials getting to beat up on lower-level group of five teams. Michigan State starts the season at home against what looks to be a pretty good Northwestern team.

Week 2 @ BYU – 39.8%

BYU might just be the common denominator for truly terrible Michigan State seasons. The Spartans lost to the Cougars at home in 2016 and now have to travel all the way to Provo, Utah in week two.

Week 3 vs. Toledo – 78.8%

Even this game is far from a gimme. Toledo has had some really nice football teams the last decade and could easily put a scare into a young Michigan State team.

Week 4 vs. Miami – 50.9%

I’m always surprised when I see MSU is projected to beat Miami. I think it says more about just how bad the ACC is going to be this year.

Week 5 @ Iowa – 14.2%

Winning on the road at Iowa is hard enough with a really good team.

Week 6 vs. Michigan – 21.8%

It might be a couple years before Tucker is able to swing the Michigan State vs. UofM rivalry back around.

Week 7 vs. Ohio State – 3.4%

Ohio State is going to absolutely bludgeon every single team they play this year en route to the College Football Playoff and probably a national title.

Week 8 @ Indiana – 14.9%

Indiana was good last year and is going to be better this year so long as Mike Penix Jr. stays healthy. Winning in their place is going to be really tough.

Week 9 vs. Minnesota – 31.1%

Even Minnesota is up right now. PJ Feck has the Golden Gophers cruising towards back-to-back double-digit win seasons. Good thing he’s going to bolt from there real soon.

Week 10 @ Penn State – 4.6%

Same analysis as the Iowa game. Although MSU certainly has had some weird upsets over Penn State the last few years.

Week 11 vs. Rutgers – 66.7%

Hooray for Rutgers! (Please don’t lose to Rutgers)

Week 12 @ Maryland – 45.7%

Another toss-up game. Mike Locksley might have things turned around a bit in College Park, but the Terps are still a ways away from being a quality team.

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1362]