Roger Goodell, look away. Everyone else, feast your eyes on the latest update to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
According to the site’s calculations, the most likely Super Bowl matchup this year now features the reigning champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking on the New England Patriots.
The Pats have a 30.8 percent chance to reach the 2021-22 title game, per the FPI, while the Bucs are holding strong at 31.4 percent. A game that ends with the commissioner handing over the Lombardi Trophy to either Robert Kraft and Bill Belichick or Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski would require a simulcast solely focused on Goodell’s expressions.
That said, it remains an extremely unlikely matchup:
Patriots-Bucs is now the most likely Super Bowl matchup, per FPI.
There's a 10% chance of it occurring.
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 7, 2021
The Bucs (9-3) have to maneuver their way through an NFC loaded with the Green Bay Packers (9-3), Arizona Cardinals (10-3) and Dallas Cowboys (8-4). The 9-4 Pats are just as bunched up in the AFC, with the Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs all sitting at 8-4.
Tipico Sportsbook still lists KC as the favorite to win the AFC at +270 with New England right behind at +320. Tampa Bay is the favorite to claim the NFC at +250. As for the championship itself, Tampa is +500 to repeat while the Patriots are +700 to claim their seventh title.
Belichick having to battle Brady just to tie the QB’s ring count would truly be a blessed Super Bowl for football fans. Except for maybe those in Atlanta, where you have to assume the Over/Under for number of viewers would be set around 200.
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