The Miami Dolphins narrowly escaped a win in Week 14 against the New York Jets — a decision that would have provided the team with more momentum as the team looks to build towards 2020, but also an end result that would have cast the Dolphins deeper down the draft order for the 2020 NFL Draft.
Brian Flores has explicitly stated that he does not care about the NFL Draft order, but you can be rest assured that Dolphins management has been keeping a watchful eye on Miami’s positioning here. As things currently stand, Miami is slated to pick 4th in the order. A win over the Jets would have dropped Miami to 8th — with games against the terrible Giants and Bengals left to be played.
But there’s no winding the clock back on the referee’s decision to review and call defensive pass interference on Miami. And as a result, the decision is final.
With the order now locked with three weeks left to go, the Dolphins are currently projected to finish exactly where they stand now — with the 4th overall pick. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has listed the Dolphins as owning a 68.3% chance of finishing the season with a top-5 selection. FPI simulates every remaining contest 10,000 times, aggregating the results to formulate a projection of the most likely outcome.
In the Week 15 simulation, Miami’s average draft position is 4.2, the 4th highest in the league behind the Bengals, Giants and Redskins. With a little luck, Miami could find themselves as high as 2nd as a realistic outcome — but with wins over the Giants and Bengals could also see their first selection dip as low as 8th in the order when it is all said and done.
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