Heather Dinich, who covers the College Football Playoff for ESPN, recently took a look at the path to the College Football Playoff (subscription required) for the top 10 teams in ESPN’s preseason FPI (Football Power Index).
Dinich broke down how each team can make the playoff, what its chances are according to ESPN’s FPI and AllState Playoff Predictor, and how the CFP selection committee will evaluate it.
Clemson, which is No. 4 in the preseason FPI, has a 59 percent chance to win the ACC according to ESPN, while its Playoff Predictor gives the Tigers a 59 percent chance to make the CFP and a 26 percent chance to make the national championship game.
Dinich notes that what the CFP selection committee won’t like when evaluating Clemson is its No. 44 strength of schedule, and she points out that of the top 12 teams in the FPI, ACC foe Pittsburgh (No. 54) is the only team ranked lower in that regard.
On the other hand, what the committee would like, Dinich says, is a perfect 4-0 nonconference record.
“Clemson shouldn’t have any problems with Furman or Louisiana Tech (especially at home),” Dinich wrote, “but if the Tigers can win at South Bend, Indiana, and beat rival South Carolina at home, they’ll have a much better case for the top four as an ACC champ. South Carolina is making strides under Shane Beamer and is a potential top 25 opponent.”
As for the biggest obstacle to the Tigers getting back to the playoff in 2022 after missing out on the action last season for the first time in seven years?
The marquee matchup at Notre Dame on Nov. 5.
“This should be Clemson’s biggest opportunity to impress the selection committee on the national stage,” Dinich wrote. “If Clemson loses this game, it can still finish in the top four with an ACC title, but it’s not a guarantee. It still depends on how the other Power 5 champions fare in similarly difficult nonconference games.”
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