ESPN simulation has the Commanders landing the No. 2 overall pick again

ESPN simulated the 2024 season and it’s not good for the Commanders.

The Washington Commanders can’t be any worse than they were a year ago when they finished 4-13, right? The Commanders fired the previous coaching staff and hired general manager Adam Peters and head coach Dan Quinn to turn the franchise around.

Peters flipped the roster and emerged from the NFL draft with six players selected in the first three rounds, including quarterback Jayden Daniels. Daniels was the talk of the preseason because of how prepared he is heading into his rookie season.

However, not everyone is convinced the Commanders will be a good team in 2024.

ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) recently simulated the 2024 season 20,000 times, stopped on one specific simulation, and predicted Washington would finish last in the NFC East and end the year with the No. 2 overall pick—again.

ESPN’s simulation has the Commanders slightly improving at 5-12, with the Minnesota Vikings finishing 4-13 and landing the No. 1 overall pick.

There’s little doubt that Washington will be improved in 2024. Will that show in the win/loss column? That remains to be seen. The Commanders have made moves to improve on both sides of the ball, and you can probably guarantee the defense will not be dead last in every category again with Quinn roaming the sidelines.