Well isn’t that a nice nugget. Well, let’s not make more of it than it deserves: ESPN senior NFL national reporter Dan Graziano shared his list of bold predictions for every team ahead of the 2023 season, and he predicts turmoil for the Las Vegas Raiders. Could the New Orleans Saints gain from it?
Graziano doesn’t see the Raiders’ partnership with all-star wide receiver Davante Adams lasting long. Adams came to Las Vegas to explicitly play with Derek Carr, the quarterback whom he’d caught a lot of passes from when they in college together at Fresno State. Then Raiders unceremoniously benched Carr and tossed him to the curb. We’ll let Graziano tell it:
“I’m not saying they’ll trade him. I don’t know if they’d even consider it. But the Raiders are likely going to be terrible this season, and Adams went there to play with a quarterback who got benched before Adams’ first season with the team ended and is now in New Orleans.
If he doesn’t believe he fits in the Jimmy Garoppolo-led offense, and if the Raiders’ season gets off to a bad start, Adams could absolutely start making noise about wanting out. And coach Josh McDaniels has never been shy about trading away players he doesn’t believe fit his program.”
Maybe we should keep an eye on the Raiders’ fortunes ahead of the Oct. 31 trade deadline. They only have two 2022 playoff teams lined up before that deadline, but they will play five of their first eight games on the road and against some of squads expected to be the hottest in the league this year. They could very easily be 2-6 or 3-5 at the trade deadline and look to start a fire sale.
And Adams is surprisingly affordable. Any team trading for him would be on the hook for his $6.03 million base salary this year and his fully-guaranteed $16.89 million salary next season; his contract extends further but without heavy guarantees for an acquiring team. The Saints are currently under the cap by $5.48 million and they could open up more salary cap space by restructuring contracts with left guard James Hurst ($3.25 million) and right defensive end Carl Granderson ($1.52 million). That easily clears enough room to acquire Adams and preserve resources for other in-season moves.
What about the cost to acquire him? The Raiders traded a package of first- and second-round picks for Adams just one year ago (well, technically, a year and five months ago), so you’d think they would want a similar return themselves. The Saints could afford that but they wouldn’t be happy about it after losing the No. 10 overall pick to the Philadelphia Eagles in the last draft cycle.
But if the Saints are standing at the trade deadline with a 6-2 record or better an really feeling themselves, maybe they won’t value next year’s picks so much. The receiving corps is in good, not great, shape with Michael Thomas continuing to knock off the rust while Chris Olave looks like a Pro Bowler. We haven’t seen Rashid Shaheed catch a pass since changing his jersey number, though, and the team is talking about Tre’Quan Smith like he’s a big part of their plans. Yeah, they could use someone like Adams on top of the depth chart.
So here’s why it won’t happen. For one thing, the Saints probably feel like Thomas fits that description of “someone like Adams on top of the depth chart.” For another, the Raiders are putting a ton of faith in Adams’ ability to lead their receiving corps and keep the offense afloat, regardless of who’s under center. Trading him would save miserly owner Mark Davis as much as $6.89 million against the salary cap but he would still be on the hook for about $7.85 million in dead money this year with a staggering $23.55 million locked up next offseason. That’s a heck of an albatross for a team claiming to be competitive in one of the league’s toughest divisions.
Even if Adams is unhappy and wants out, Davis may not be able to afford to let him go. Literally. That’s a lot of money to pay someone not on his roster and he likely won’t have the stomach for it. But stranger things have happened, and if the Saints are willing to shell out a strong enough trade package and pay as much of what Adams is owed as possible, maybe something materializes. But I wouldn’t bet on it, not even in Las Vegas.
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