Michigan football has lost to Indiana just once since 1987, and that was in the COVID year when the Hoosiers had Michael Penix at the helm and the Wolverines were struggling mightily. But IU is looking for another win on Saturday, but for the first time in a generation, being the favorite.
Not only is Indiana the favorite, ESPN thinks it could be a blowout victor. (subscription required)
It’s not that surprising, honestly, given how Indiana has beaten opponents. The Hoosiers have been as dominant as Michigan’s 2023 national championship team, and if IU had a different school name, it would likely be ranked even higher than No. 8 as it currently is in the College Football Playoff rankings.
Thus, the way ESPN sees it, there’s not much of a chance that the Wolverines have, and it could be bad for the maize and blue on Saturday.
The Hoosiers are 14-point favorites at home against Michigan. While this spread might seem generous at first glance, a closer look at statistics and recent performances suggests that Indiana is primed to not only win but cover this spread comfortably.
One of the keys to Indiana’s success has been their high-octane offense, led by quarterback Kurtis Rourke. (…)
Meanwhile, Michigan’s offense has been faltering all season. The Wolverines are a dismal 104th nationally in scoring and are even worse passing (128th). (…)
It’s very plausible that Indiana could score 40-plus points while Michigan manages around 14, pushing the total over 49 points.
As vaunted as the Indiana offense is, this will likely be the best defense that the Hoosiers have seen. Michigan is ranked No. 12 defensively, according to PFF. And per the same metrics, the best defenses that the Hoosiers have faced thus far are FIU (No. 30) and Washington (No. 33) — both of whom held IU to 31 points.
But, given Michigan’s offense, even if the defense holds Kurtis Rourke and company to 31 points, it’s unclear that the Wolverines can take advantage. After all, the IU defense is rated No. 3 according to PFF>