Playing in the SEC is no joke and things are about to get a lot tougher in 2024.
Oklahoma and Texas are set to arrive, making a gauntlet of conference schedule that much more difficult for everyone involved. The Longhorns and Sooners will have a tougher time adjusting than the rest, but Florida might have the most daunting schedule in the inaugural year of the 16-team SEC.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly, the creator of SP+, used his strength of schedule ratings to estimate the win percentage the average top-five team would expect against a given team’s schedule.
Florida’s projected .743 SOS in 2024 might seem decent, but it translates to 8.92 wins from a top-five program, which means missing the playoffs in its current format. In 2023, the Gators faced a schedule ranked the second-toughest in the league at .803.
“After a reasonably light early slate, Florida finished its 2023 regular season with four opponents ranked 12th or better in SP+ in a five-game span,” Connelly wrote. “They lost five straight… Next year, they play Miami (currently 22nd) and Texas A&M (15th) in September and Tennessee (19th) in October… and then finish with five games against teams currently 14th or better.
“What was just about the hardest schedule in the country is getting harder.”
Of course, the College Football Playoff plans to expand to a 12-team bracket next year. A three-loss team could get in if the strength of schedule is valued highly by the committee. Florida seems to be years away from being called a top-5 program, though. The Gators are favored to win just three games in 2024.
Hopefully, facing the toughest schedule in the country will help accelerate some of the young guys’ development. Here’s a look at the entire list and each team’s ratings.
| Rank | School | 2024 SOS | 2023 SOS |
| 1 | Florida | .743 | .803 |
| 2 | Miss. St. | .793 | .828 |
| 3 | Oklahoma | .797 | .876 |
| 4 | Vanderbilt | .806 | .833 |
| 5 | S. Carolina | .807 | .812 |
| 6 | Texas | .808 | .853 |
| 7 | Auburn | .810 | .820 |
| 8 | Alabama | .812 | .833 |
| 9 | Arkansas | .817 | .835 |
| 10 | Georgia | .818 | .876 |
| 11 | Kentucky | .818 | .822 |
| 12 | Texas A&M | .832 | .838 |
| 13 | LSU | .839 | .830 |
| 14 | Tennessee | .840 | .825 |
| 15 | Ole Miss | .849 | .828 |
| 16 | Missouri | .877 | .834 |
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