Two weeks into the 2024 NFL season, there are nine win-less teams at the moment, one of which is the Indianapolis Colts.
Falling to 0-2 historically doesn’t bode well for a team’s playoff chances, but going to 0-3 all but eliminates those odds. As ESPN’s Bill Barnwell noted, since 2002, 103 teams have gone 0-3 to start the season, and only the 2018 Houston Texans have fought back to make the playoffs.
So, with nine teams already in must-win mode, Barnwell ranked each of them by their likelihood to turn things around.
Not surprisingly, at the top of Barnwell’s list were the Cincinnati Bengals and the Baltimore Ravens. Then coming in at No. 6 were the Colts, ahead of Denver, the New York Giants, and Carolina.
By ESPN’s FPI metric, the Colts’ playoff odds right now are at 22.7 percent. Barnwell goes into great detail about the Colts’ early season struggles, but in shot, it all comes back to poor play from the defensive front and the ups and downs that the offense is experiencing with Anthony Richardson.
The growing pains with Richardson were to be expected, but for a team that has invested so heavily into it’s defensive front, the massive struggles in the trenches come as a surprise.
Through two games, the Colts have been run over, allowing 213 rushing yards to Houston and 261 rushing yards to Green Bay. This has often left the Colts offense playing from behind and with limited opportunities because the opponent is dominating the time of possession.
Barnwell would also note that in Malik Willis’ 14 dropbacks this past Sunday, the Colts were unable to generate a sack, and by ESPN’s charting, they didn’t even have a quarterback hit either.
On both sides of the ball there are certainly things that have to improve. But any sort of potential turnaround for the Colts begins with much better play against the run. A bad run defense is often just too much to overcome because the negative trickle-down effect it has everywhere else.